In contrast to other staple grains, which have fared poorly this year as a result of extreme weather, global rice production for 2012 is forecast to outpace consumption in 2012/13, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. The FAO said on Monday (19th November) that the shift will result “in an upward revision of 5 million tonnes in 2013 closing inventories”.

An FAO spokesperson said, "Compared to last year, world rice carryover stocks are expected to rise by 7 percent, or 10 million tonnes, to a new high of almost 170 tonnes, marking the eighth consecutive year of stock accumulation. As a result, the world rice stock-to-use ratio is forecast to rise from 33.6 percent in 2012 to 35.5 percent in 2013."

FAO raised its July forecast for global rice production in 2012 by 4.2 million tonnes to 729 million tonnes, or 486 million tonnes on milled basis, largely because the 2012 season has been "progressing satisfactorily, especially after a revival of the monsoon rains since mid-August allayed fears of a repeat of the 2009 drought in India."

Prospects improved not only for India, but also for Egypt, North Korea, the Philippines, the United States and Viet Nam, while they worsened in Myanmar, Colombia and Senegal. In Asia, production is set to increase by 0.8 percent on last year and in Africa by 4 percent.

Although North American production is also set to increase, production in South America is down 6 percent on poor weather.

FAO said increasing rice production in Asia means that the region that consumes the most rice will not need to import so much of it. FAO forecasts that global rice trade in 2013 will reach 37.5 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally above the estimate for 2012, which was recently raised by more than 3 million tonnes to 37.3 million tonnes (milled), 2 percent more than in 2011 and an all-time record.

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