Researchers from Sweden who worked to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have suggested that meeting targets to keep global warming within 2 degrees Celsius may require moves away from animal-based foods.

According to scientists from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, future greenhouse gas emissions from food production may prove too much to meet the UN climate target of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

The scientists were amongst 300 expert contributors to the latest IPCC report on climate change, released on Monday (31st March). Research published last year – as part of an ambitious effort to hold individual carbon producers to account for pollution, rather than national governments – revealed that 90 companies are responsible for an estimated two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, and all but seven of these are energy companies.

The Chalmers researchers acknowledged that carbon dioxide emissions from the energy and transportation sectors currently account for the largest share of climate pollution. However, they said that eliminating these emissions would not guarantee staying below the UN limit.

Rather, they pointed out that emissions from agriculture threaten to keep increasing as global meat and dairy consumption increases. Current estimates suggest that, unless agricultural emissions are addressed, nitrous oxide from fields and methane from livestock may double by 2070. The researchers said this alone would make meeting the climate target essentially impossible.

Study author Fredrik Hedenus said, "We have shown that reducing meat and dairy consumption is key to bringing agricultural climate pollution down to safe levels. Broad dietary change can take a long time. We should already be thinking about how we can make our food more climate friendly."

Hedenus and colleagues suggested that the increasing tendency towards diets high in meat, milk, cheese, and other 'resource-dense' food around the world does not sit comfortably with predictions that the Earth's population will increase dramatically by the middle of the century. They warned that, because agricultural emissions are difficult and expensive to reduce via changes in production methods or technology, these growing numbers of people, eating more meat and dairy, are likely to increase the polluting impact of the food sector.

"These emissions can be reduced with efficiency gains in meat and dairy production, as well as with the aid of new technology," clarified co-author Stefan Wirsenius. "But the potential reductions from these measures are fairly limited and will probably not suffice to keep us within the climate limit, if meat and dairy consumption continues to grow."

Beef and lamb account for the largest agricultural emissions, relative to the energy they provide. By 2050, estimates indicate that beef and lamb will account for half of all agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, while only contributing 3 percent of human calorie intake, whilst dairy products are estimated to have less of an impact.

The government’s Export Action Plan, unveiled in October, focuses for the most part on exporting resource-intensive ‘luxury’ foods produced in the UK, including chocolates, meat products, dairy and alcoholic drinks. The government approach to food has been criticised by thinkers including London City University professor Tim Lang who has been at the forefront of calls for the implementation of a cohesive ‘food policy’ that would work between government departments to address food issues relating to sustainability, public health and agriculture.