The soil moisture deficits, which remain high across most of the country and a further decline in aquifer levels, which can be expected over the remainder of the summer, mean precautions are still necessary.  

The extent to which further problems develop this year will be dependent on whether the dry weather returns. However, any delay to this year’s water recharge season could lead to significant problems in 2012 in the event of a fourth consecutive winter of low rainfall. Any damage to crops done during the dry spring is now irreversible and farmers can only wait to see what the impact will be on the volume of crops as they are harvested.

The weather over the past two months, which was dominated by sunshine and showers, have replenished water resources throughout England and Wales and most of the country has now 100 per cent of average rainfall for July. Only central England has been drier than expected, receiving only 69 per cent of monthly average rainfall so far.

Water levels and groundwater still low, even for summer

In parts of the South East, which suffered particularly heavily under drought, the recent rainfall has had little effect on groundwater levels. Groundwater levels are currently below normal, even for summertime, throughout southern and central England. Since the height of the drought in spring, the Environment Agency (EA) has run groundwater pumping schemes to boost river flows, to protect wildlife and the environment and maintain water for abstractions. Nevertheless, a number of rivers throughout England remain gravely low for the time of year.

Experts have offered assurances that the resilient design and capacity of the country’s reservoirs means stocks can be expected to remain within a normal range until the autumn. Water companies and government bodies have insisted the UK has learnt much since 1976, when drought gripped the country.  

Effect on farmers and farming

Although the recent rainfall has helped many farmers and growers, with bumper fruit crops currently being harvested, the extremely dry soils in Eastern England has resulted in earlier and heavier demands on spray irrigation. The NFU has reported that voluntary restrictions remain in place on rivers through the Fens, affecting around 180 farmers in Cambridgeshire. Furthermore, 33 farmers have had to stop abstraction altogether, due to conditions on their licences. The Environment Agency has not yet imposed formal Section 57 restrictions on 27 farmers operating in Walland and Romney Marsh in Kent.

The impact of the dry spring on farmers and growers has been mixed, depending on local circumstances, such as soil type, crop type and access to irrigation water. The recent rain has stabilized the situation for the large crop producing areas in eastern and central England, although the damage already done to arable crops before mid-June cannot be reversed.

The NFU has said farmers that have invested in winter storage reservoirs and the latest technology to determine irrigation schedules are likely to have seen a return on their investments this year.

However, extremely low rainfall this winter may render refilling some reservoirs difficult, which could have serious implications for next year’s crops. Across Europe and in drought stricken regions in Southern US states livestock farmers have voiced concerns about the availability and cost of food and bedding for winter. The National Pig Association (NPA) launched an appeal to arable producers last month, encouraging them to consider baling rape straw, as it is likely there will be good commercial demand for it.

Met office forecasts unsettled conditions

The Met Office has forecast unsettled conditions across England and Wales for the next month. In the South and East, temperatures and sunshine are likely to remain within average range for the time of year, but may drop to below average with the onset of the more unsettled conditions. The Met Office also said rainfall throughout the period is expected to be around average levels.

The threat of a dry, cold winter still looms. However, meteorologists have said that if England and Wales receive an average amount of rainfall as predicted over autumn and winter, the vast majority of areas will have recovered by spring 2012.