Willie Wright, Gleadell Oilseed Trader, provides analysis on the week’s developments in the oilseed market, where rapeseed is still riding high.

Soybeans didn’t get the comfort they were looking for from the USDA report last week. Although we did see crop production losses, there was a lowering of demand, keeping the end figures balanced. Post USDA soybeans have held around $13.40 basis March and look likely to trend higher for time being with some analysts predicting a return to $14.50 level. Oilseeds in general look over bought short term that is stopping some buyers coming to market with enthusiasm.

Crude oil continues to hold on to its recent highs and will be further bolstered by the progress with the Greek debt crisis.

Canadian canola has been rising in line with soybeans and rapeseed with a number of importers potentially looking to the Canadians for supplies throughout the 2012/13 campaign.

Rapeseed shows no signs of giving up its recent gains and could test its old high of €378, it will be interesting to see if we can push through this level and hold these prices. As we progress into the second half of the season, we see smaller volumes coming off farms with farmers unsure how much rapeseed they have left to trade. Because of the negative carry in rapeseed most merchants will have used their store stock by now, which could make the next two months quite interesting. New crop rapeseed has rallied €75 since early December, allowing farmers to lock in some good price levels. New crop looks well supported currently and farm selling may become more cautious if the drought warnings continue.

The weather will be a greater feature of the market in the coming months with abnormally dry conditions in many parts of Europe, rapeseed is advancing well and yield potential is the big unknown.

Crush margins remain very depressed with no real signs of improvement in the short term.