Willie Wright, Oilseed Trader at Gleadell Grain Merchants, reports on the global oilseed markets, where forecasts for soybean production are causing concern.

Soybean crop prospects have deteriorated further, fuelling fears for soybean production by major producers in the US and South America, with some traders reducing their figures for 2011/12 by 17mln/t. 

India could possibly increase their 2011/12 soybean imports by 0.5mln/t due to poor domestic production. 

Crude oil has continued to trade sideways whilst watching political tensions in Iran. 

Canadian canola prices have rallied sharply in line with other oilseeds markets. 

Canadian canola exports are running high along with an increased domestic crush demand. 

Rapeseed prices in Europe have rallied to a large premium over soybeans, demonstrating a tight spot market in Europe. We have also seen Feb MATIF rapeseed futures rally to a 30€ premium over May before finally expiring at around 18€ premium. Although, this can be put down to a technical squeeze between longs and shorts prior to delivery, it still demonstrates spot demand. Fears that the cold snap in Europe, Russia and the Ukraine will damage crops has helped rapeseed remain firm.

Poor crush margins along with rapeseed oil prices falling are making European rapeseed look expensive compared to other origins such as Canadian canola. 

No real change in macro-economic activity with the Greek debt still the main focus at this time.