Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading director, comments on the OSR market

The soy market, which tends to lend a price steer to the global oilseeds complex, continues to find underlying support. Weather concerns remain in Argentina, and many seem surprised that USDA failed to adjust its 57mln t production forecast in last week’s report.

Local reports suggest the crop may be as low as 50mln t, so unless the Brazilian crop is going to grow by another 4-5mln t, it seems unlikely that we will see a big rush to sell soy at the moment.

European rapeseed futures have rallied this week, but failed again to breach the €420 price level. This is the third time the market has failed at the contract highs that we set back in December, despite the perceived tightness in European supply.

The larger-than-expected crop in Australia has made it easier to find imported material. Some traders are now saying that there is enough business on the books to even out the supply side of the European supply and demand.

The UK market continues to be dominated by the moves of currency and spot demand as crushers wait for Australian imports to arrive.

Mrs May’s speech on Tuesday saw sterling rally 1.5 cents against the euro and took the shine off UK farm gate contract highs that we had seen at the start of the week.

However, there is still a gap to fill before the third country seed lands in Liverpool in mid-February, and this should be viewed as a selling opportunity, particularly as prices are now nearly £100/t higher than they were at the harvest low!