Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading director, comments on the OSR market

The weather and soybean damage in Argentina continues to dominate the news in the oilseeds complex.

Argentina remains extremely wet and large crop losses (some analysts talking as much as 5 mln t) have been priced into the market. Hedge funds have been aggressive buyers, helping to add upward momentum.

That said, prices have been unable to make a new high over the course of this week and they are currently holding at around $10 a bushel. There is some dry weather in the forecasts and in view of the extent of the upward move, a reduction cannot be ruled out.

Rapeseed prices are also unmoved over the week. The European physical market has been reasonably active as traders square old crop positions ahead of the May MATIF futures expiry.

With the old crop campaign now largely complete, focus turns to new crop with lower crops again expected across Europe and the Ukraine, which exports large volumes into the EU. New crop price direction will be affected by many factors including soybeans, currency and global rapeseed crop sizes.