Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading director, comments on the OSR market

USDA revised higher its estimation of the US soybean yield and crop in last week’s report, to the surprise of the market. However a recent release shows the ‘prevented’ (undrilled) acreage (soybeans) higher than previously estimated, leaving analysts expecting that the USDA will start trimming its acreage forecast in future monthly reports.

Brazilian soybean estimates were left unchanged, but with the local currency hitting its lowest level since 2002 plantings could increase significantly for the 2015/16 season. A potential record 100mln t crop is already being talked.

Focus will remain on what appears to be daily US yield forecasts and the Farm Service Agency report and its potential impact upon final production numbers. With the Chinese due to visit the US next week, the market will also gauge if any deals materialise, especially after the recent Chinese financial concerns.

MATIF rapeseed closed on a four-week high, closing slightly above what had been termed a key resistance level of €367/t. However, any significant uplift in UK rapeseed prices has been capped by the firm pound/euro exchange rate.