Real fears over food and water supply in the coming decades and the demonstrated need for increases in renewable energy, pitted against a rise in the global population and the increasing effects of climate change should spur governments into acting without delay, an eminent scientist has told delegates at the Oxford Farming Conference.

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Reports on climate change state that countries’ ability to deal with expected pressures will be dictated by the amount of natural resources available and access to them, though if these are controlled and administered by corporate interests, the results for citizens in developing countries may be exposure to the effects of climate change and hunger.

Speaking last week at the OFC, Defra chief scientist Bob Watson brought up the findings of last year's Foresight report. The report's message was clouded upon its release by the wider debate over the place of GM crops in the future of farming. Although biotechnology is only mentioned as one potential means to address the problems global agriculture faces, the debate over the technology eclipsed other remedial means such as agroeological practices, which have been recommended by the IAASTD, Foresight and various UN Food and Agriculture Agency reports as imperative to the future of farming.

Dr Watson last week reiterated that the Foresight report revealed “Business as usual will not work: the system is broken.” The eminent scientist, recently knighted for his contribution to food policy research, criticised commodity speculators for causing volatile prices and corporate interests, which he indicted for perpetuating unsustainable practices in agriculture for short-term financial gain, and to the detriment of future generations.

However, the Foresight report itself has been criticised as a business-friendly reworking of the of the earlier IAASTD Institute report, which was published in 2008, as an intergovernmental effort involving over 900 contributors across 110 countries. The report, on which Bob Watson worked as a director, recommends a bottom-up approach to addressing food security and climate change; it recommends understanding the needs of those in the most vulnerable positions and focuses on agroecology and knowledge transfer.

Need for a second, and truly green, 'Green Revolution'

Speaking on Thursday, Dr Watson revealed that in the UK, small climate changes may even increase production. However, in the Tropics and Sub-Tropics a decrease in production can already be attributed to the effects of climate change. He pointed out that, although nitrogen fertiliser use has drastically reduced the number of people worldwide suffering from hunger, much of the world's agricultural land is being overused and there is a real need to create sustainable, low impact systems to feed a growing population. The Defra scientist also proclaimed the fact 1 billion people go to bed hungry in the world today, whilst another billion overeat is “unacceptable.”

He said that the world's poorest people need access to the best seeds, technologies and opportunities for knowledge transfer. That they need to be able to develop systems which are resilient to climate change, empower women and educate girls.

Although commentators frequently claim that agricultural production must double by the middle of this century, Dr Watson contested this. He said that if waste and post-harvest loss are addressed then production only needs to increase by 30-60 per cent, which can be achieved in other continents.

However, even addressing waste and loss, which itself will be a struggle, being as they result from inequitable food distribution and are contributed to by an inefficient food supply chain in developed countries and poverty, exacerbated by insufficient storage facilities and corrupt governments, in the world's poorest regions. Improvements must be made using less water and little more land.

Dr Watson said that, as the increases of the first green revolution (the period between the 1940s and 1970s when new technologies led to greater agricultural productivity) have slowed and led to widespread pollution; he expressed the need for a second wave of sustainable initiatives.

Furthermore, the effects of climate change will increase the difficulty of the task; the doctor lamented that, “Total inaction by governments around the world and at climate change talks have condemned us to the high end of scientific projections [over the effects of climate change], not the low end.“

Real hopes for the future

However, the Defra scientist's projections were not all negative. He said that addressing these problems is well within the power of agriculturalists. Current technology can address all the problems which threaten food production, "Providing post harvest loss is cut down and agroecological technology can be developed."

Echoing the demands of writer Michael Pollan, who called for open source genetic modification to better study the technology and prevent its use as a "band-aid on monocultures," Dr Watson suggested GM should be examined to look at "the interplay of risks and benefits." The calls fly in the face of many industry commentators, including NFU president Peter Kendall, whose eagerness to adopt GM without addressing questions of power and control in the industry is palpable.

Dr Watson said genomics will play a key role in future food security, whether used traditional breeding or biotech governs future developments. He said that concern by consumers "cannot go unheeded," as there is a demonstrable lack of public trust in the companies currently developing biotech seeds. The current government has received major criticism from food campaigners for its continued support for GM technology at the expense of soil science and research into agroecology, both of which will help forge enduring systems and reduce the impact of farming on the environment.

Drawing closer to Defra chief Caroline Spelman, who called for more public-private partnerships during her address, Dr Watson said “Partnership is the key word.” He advocated cooperation between nations, governments, NGOs and the private sector and immediate action in order to realise the aims he laid out.

He said, "There are 'win-wins' where increases in production goes hand in hand with environmental protection. Collective management of ecosystems – not just maximising provisioning services, but balancing with the ecosystem and reconnecting people with nature is the solution.

"We are not feeding the world effectively today and are causing environmental degradation, but I am convinced that we can do this without any further advances in technology, through cooperation."

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