Increasing volumes of southern hemisphere lamb are catching the attention of shoppers and mainstream media, leading the National Sheep Association (NSA) to take stock of global lamb trade.

Michael Priestley, NSA Policy Manager, says supermarket shelves are expected to remain the talking point, as country of origin must be stated on packaging. Provenance issues are not so obvious in the food service sector.

Mr Priestley points to import data and AHDB analysis which shows Australian imports increasing the most significantly since the 12% tariff was removed on an increasing quantity of product. Imports grew 37% last year to 76,500t, the equivalent of 28.7% of the total sheepmeat produced in the UK. (266,500t).

He stresses that the UK is a key exporter of lamb itself, and 2024 figures showed the UK exported 32% of its production and imported 28.7% of its production. The only reason the UK can ship lamb to Europe is because our standards match those of the EU.

“NSA’s recent message to press has been that NSA members are concerned the animal welfare and environmental standards of New Zealand and Australian lamb fall short of standards set by UK law and assurance schemes that govern UK sheep farms.

“UK farmers strive to produce to the highest standards in the world, which costs farmers time and money. NSA therefore calls on supermarkets to consider this when they import southern hemisphere lamb, especially at a time when government support is so uncertain and the old Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) subsidy for UK farms is dwindling away.”

Mr Priestley adds: “Importing lamb from New Zealand and Australia may be short-changing the UK consumer, even though it is cheaper to buy.”

A further consideration is the EU-New Zealand free trade agreement, as limitations on product will also be reduced on New Zealand product coming into the EU, and the EU is the UK’s main customer. At this early stage, the high-value cuts (i.e. legs) that New Zealand exports are not expected to displace UK shipments of whole carcasses.

Life outside the EU is higher risk and will expose UK sheep farmers to the whims of global geopolitics, climate change, and Chinese buying behaviours.

“Trump’s tariffs mean the US is buying less New Zealand and Australia lamb,” explains Mr Priestley. “China is trying to produce more lamb of its own, and if anything happens to China’s buying behaviour, there is a risk of more southern hemisphere lamb being diverted to the UK.

“Furthermore, there are factors that could limit lamb being produced in New Zealand and Australia, such as climate change leading to wildfires and drought and government policies reducing grazing area through afforestation.

“These external factors will have a growing impact as tariff free quota amounts become liberalised over the remainder of the 15-year liberalisation period.”