As farm leaders debated the future of Britain in Europe at the NFU’s annual conference in Birmingham, the union revealed it has commissioned research on the possible outcomes of a ‘Brexit' scenario.

A modelling study being conducted by LEI Wageningen UR, a research institute in the Netherlands, will examine the impact of different post-Brexit referendum scenarios on UK agriculture. The findings of the research are set to be published in the coming weeks, union officials said.
 
Earlier this month, Research from the University of Warwick, commissioned by the Yorkshire Agricultural Society, concluded that leaving Europe would place British farming in jeopardy. http://www.farming.co.uk/news/article/12130

In its NFU-Commissioned research, LEI Wageningen UR will consider three trade scenarios and three support level scenarios. It will estimate the outcomes on the sector’s production and trade, on farm gate price levels and on farm income. The scenario analysis will be conducted by using an econometric model and a farm level model.

Discussing the research on Tuesday, NFU president Meurig Raymond said, “The UK’s relationship with the EU is under intense scrutiny ahead of the referendum in June. The Wageningen University study will identify which elements of agricultural and trade policy the NFU will lobby for if the referendum results in the UK leaving the EU. What’s clear is that many farmers are seeking more information before coming to a decision on which way to vote.

“We hope our latest economic study and the debate at this year’s Conference will provide more vital steps in allowing members to more fully appreciate the impact of both possible referendum outcomes.”

Meanwhile, after the government announced on Saturday than an in-out referendum on EU membership will be held in June, the union is calling for more information on what this could mean for farming. The NFU has asked farmers to demand more information from government on several key areas, including:

• what agriculture policy will look like after a vote to leave;
• what a vote to leave will mean for access to the European market;
• post-brexit immigration policy (for those who employ seasonal workers);
• whether Britain would be more or less open to imports after an exit

The union is also seeking answers on controversial asks, including the regulatory environment if Britain remains part of the EU. Like the UK government, it is critical of the application of the ‘precautionary principle’ in risk assessments and wants more access to GM crops, a divisive issue in the bloc, which many larger member states and the majority of the European public oppose.

At the Conference, the union held a debate on whether a British exit from the EU would have positive or negative impacts for agriculture. Former Lib Dem MEP George Lyon spoke in favour of the Union, whilst Conservative MEP for the South-East Daniel Hannan made the case for Brexit.

Tempers frayed at times in the debate, in which the Conservative speaker claimed farmers could be paid higher rates of subsidies outside the EU - to which the UK is a net contributor - pointing out that subsidy payments in European states outside the bloc (including Norway and Switzerland) are higher. His opponent said the government would phase out subsidies after an exit. Lyon accused Hannan of making promises he could not deliver on.

Elsewhere at the Conference, farming minister George Eustice, a former UKIP candidate, reiterated his support for the ‘leave’ campaign, whilst Defra secretary of State Liz Truss dedicated a significant portion of her speech to explaining why she feels farming "would be stronger, safer and better off in a reformed Europe”.