'Control the controllables': how farmers can navigate nutrient management in uncertain times

These are perplexing times for arable farmers. Prices for the season's grain crop are uncertain and the war in the Middle East is causing an input cost and supply crisis that changes by the hour. It's no wonder farmers are facing some tough decisions.

Yara's Food Chain Manager for Europe, Mark Tucker, is also a respected agronomist. He has experienced previous market shocks and has some practical, grounded advice for farmers navigating this complex landscape. His overall message is clear: "Stay calm, stay focused on what you can control and keep the agronomy sound."

Two broad options are in play 

Crops are looking well across much of the UK, yet grain markets have shown little of the upward movement farmers had hoped for. At the same time, the Middle East war is creating a fertiliser price and supply squeeze felt universally across the country.

"Farming has always been a bit of an annual gamble," says Mark. "But the odds seem a little different this time. Two broad options are in play. The first is to invest in crop nutrition on the assumption that commodity prices will move and can be capitalised on. The second is to assume little will change and to minimise inputs accordingly."

But Mark is wary of farmers letting world news and market noise dominate their actions. "Keep your feet on the ground, and make your decisions purely based on your farm, your circumstances. Keep your focus purely on managing the things you can control." 

Is a fertiliser holiday on the table?

The idea of stepping back from fertiliser investment – a 'P&K holiday' – is understandable. But it requires careful thought. Phosphate and potash decisions carry less immediate urgency than nitrogen, though deferred investment still has consequences further down the line.

Nitrogen is a harder call. For those approaching final applications on winter crops, there may be scope to hold back bought-in fertiliser and carry it forward into the 2026–2027 season. But this decision is heavily dependent on where each farm sits in its application cycle, and it comes with yield implications that ripple through every other cost on the farm.

"Yield is still king here," Mark emphasises. "If you start to cut back on nitrogen inputs, which has a yield implication, then obviously that can drive all of your other budgeting and costs out of sync." For farms that have already purchased 75% or more of their fertiliser requirements, the dynamic is different again. "Their input costs are known. The focus shifts to making the best possible use of what they have," Mark adds.

The agronomy of the situation: realising the yield that's already there

Whatever the economic backdrop, there's a crop in the ground that still needs farming. Here Mark Tucker's agronomic advice is focused and practical.

The number one pillar of yield, biomass, has already been set in the crop. The challenge now is to realise that crop's full potential. As crops move through stem extension and into grain fill, attention turns to resilience, green area duration and supplying the right nutrients at the right time.

Mark highlights several nutrients that are critical at this stage. "If you've got wheat crops low in boron, then you need to think about that because that is grain set, grain numbers, pollen, integrity. Copper is also really important for grain numbers. Then when we think about grain fill, we need that green leaf to last as long as possible. So we're thinking green area duration. So there we're thinking magnesium, potassium, phosphate, late on to help remobilisation of nutrients. And then finally zinc, which plays a role in nitrogen management within the crop, particularly important for delivering protein for those targeting milling wheat quality.

The recommendation is tissue analysis – measure the crop, identify deficiencies, and make informed decisions rather than assumptions. Satellite imagery or historic soil and grain data can also help direct where investment will have the greatest impact.

Alternatives to conventional fertilisers: what actually works?

Economic pressure inevitably drives interest in alternatives – foliar nitrogen products, biostimulants, and other inputs that promise to reduce reliance on conventional fertilisers. Mark's response draws directly on experience from the last major supply disruption following the Ukraine war.

Trials conducted during that period were consistent in showing that foliar nitrogen is not a substitute for soil-applied product. It has a role in supporting green area duration and keeping crops ticking over, but it cannot replace the fundamental nitrogen supply that crops require.

On biostimulants, Mark's view is measured. They have a legitimate place in crop management, but in a year of economic constraint, the priority should be on products with a proven return on investment. "Innovation matters – but not at the expense of the fundamentals."

The more productive conversation around alternatives, Mark argues, is really about nitrogen use efficiency: not substituting nitrogen, but ensuring the plant makes the best possible use of what is applied. That means addressing micronutrient deficiencies, managing stress factors, and creating the conditions for the crop to convert nitrogen into grain.

Using data and technology to make better decisions

Mark's consistent theme throughout is that informed decisions beat emotional ones. In a year when every input expenditure matters, using the data available on farm is not optional, it's essential. Again, that means exploring historic soil analysis, grain data, satellite imagery, and in-field measurements.

The YaraPlus platform, which brings together tools including the Atfarm satellite imagery service, has seen significant development. Mark encourages any farmer who looked at it a couple of years ago to revisit it – ease of use has improved markedly, with better integration across platforms, making it straightforward to find fields, view incoming imagery and track how crops are developing.

Satellite imagery can identify how crops are performing two to three weeks before visual signs are visible – a valuable early warning for fields needing intervention. Variable rate application maps can then direct fertiliser where it will deliver the best return, reducing spend in areas where additional investment is unlikely to pay.

For in-field measurement, Mark recommends N-testers as a simple, practical tool to assess whether a crop is hungry before committing to another application. "Let's not assume it's hungry," he says. "Go and take some measurements. If it's hungry, then you've got to make the decision – am I prepared to invest in this crop?"

Spring crops and a pulse option

For those still with spring cropping decisions to make, Mark suggests pulses are worth serious consideration. Because they reduce reliance on purchased nitrogen (delivering natural nitrogen fixation and a first-wheat break) they offer a way to manage input exposure without compromising the rotation.

The caveat is that pulses need proper management. The opportunity is not in reducing management effort alongside reducing inputs – it's in redirecting that effort more effectively.

Summing up, Mark has three key messages for arable farmers to take away. "Firstly, make appropriate, field-by-field decisions and avoid blanket approaches. Attention to detail matters. Secondly, success in a challenging year comes from marginal gains – monitoring crops, measuring nutrition and acting on what you find. Lastly volatility is the new normal. If grain prices move, be ready to respond. Don't lock in decisions and walk away – keep monitoring, keep measuring, and keep managing."