GB milk production at the start of April was 1.2% above our forecast, with the latest 7-day rolling average (up to 3 April) sitting at 36.4m litres per day. Expectation was for the 7-day average to peak at 37.8m litres, on or around the 9 May. If volumes continue to run 1.2% above our forecast, we would actually achieve 38.3m litres at that time. That would be 500,000 litres per day above the highest 7-day average achieved in the last decade.

The higher than anticipated volumes are an obvious concern at this time of year, especially with reports of some processing sites struggling with the ramp up to peak volumes. However, the cold snap from 5 April, including snow across some regions, should dampen volumes when they become available. The question is, whether that’s enough to give the industry some breathing space over the coming month.