November was a remarkably mild month across most of the UK but synoptic patterns again conspired to produce a very substantial exaggeration in the North West/South East rainfall gradient across the UK.  Northern Ireland and western Scotland were wet with flood warnings widespread across Scotland late in the month.  However, with rainfall deficiencies now extending over two years, record late-autumn soil moisture deficits and depressed river flows, exceptional drought conditions now extend across large parts of central, southern and eastern England.

North South divide continues.

An unusually persistent continental high pressure cell continued to divert most Atlantic low pressure systems away from the English Lowlands throughout almost all of November. North western parts of the country experienced wet and windy weather with some notable storm totals associated with the passage of Atlantic frontal systems. Snow, particularly late in the month, contributed to precipitation totals which exceeded 150% of the November average in parts of western and central Scotland (and the Sperrin Hills in Northern Ireland). In contrast, much of eastern and central England (including the core areas of the drought) recorded

Midlands could be driest in a hundred years

Whilst Scotland (provisionally) registered its second wettest autumn since 1984, England recorded its second driest since 1985; the Anglian Region reporting its third driest autumn in a series from 1910. In England & Wales, accumulated rainfall deficiencies are exceptional in the March-November time­frame. For the Midlands region, the previous minimum (in 1995) in a series from 1910 has been clearly eclipsed and extreme deficiencies characterise parts of Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire and Northants. Longer term deficiencies are of particular relevance to the current status of groundwater resources: for E&W, the last 24 months were the driest (for accumulations ending in November) since 1974-76, whilst the total for the Midlands Region is vying with 1933/34 as the driest in a 100-year series.

Long range – wet or dry?

The meteorological data suggest that we are probably in for a mild winter in part due to higher land and sea temperatures than normal. The Met Office say there is a higher probability for a wetter than average December – February across the UK but it is likely to be wetter than average in the West but drier than average in the East. However, they also caution that “we cannot discount the possibility that this period will be very dry - the risk is very small, but it is not negligible.

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