Monday 18 April

After the driest March for over 50 years April is panning out to be just as dry. The Met Office told Farming Online today that England and Wales averaged 9mm of rain up to Friday 15 April against a monthly average of 62mm. The South East has received only 4% of its monthly average and in the Midlands only 10% of the average rainfall has fallen. In Scotland the picture is somewhat different having already received 80% of the average monthly rainfall.

Barnaby Smith of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology said the next four to six weeks will be critical. Figures for rainfall data from October 2010 through to end March 2011 show that the West Midlands, Wales and South West England received substantially below average rainfall (<75%), making this the not so wetter west. This is now showing up as exceptionally low flow rates on the main rivers in these areas. Central and eastern England didn’t fare much better with 77% of the average rainfall.

Forecast to stay dry

But the forecast suggests that it will stay dry for the rest of this week although there may be some showers in Central England and Wales towards the weekend. However, there is no prolonged rainfall forecast for the next fortnight. According to the Met Office, high pressure is blocking the normal flow of south westerly air and indications are that this could continue for the next four weeks. For the first two weeks of May the forecast is “most parts of the country will continue to see well below average amounts of rainfall.”

Outlook for crops.

Rain fed crops could suffer badly if these predictions come true. Already light land crops are suffering and winter wheat crops on these soil types are losing tillers quickly. Earlier applications of nitrogen haven’t really helped as there has been insufficient rain to wash the fertiliser into the rooting zone. Those caught out last year with the dry April decided to go earlier this year with nitrogen in an attempt to prevent a reoccurrence of last year’s problems. In hind sight it looks as though applications should have been made before mid-February this year.

The irrigators are out and high value salad and vegetable field crops are already receiving supplementary water. Soil moisture deficit calculations will prove interesting for potato growers too as there could be earlier that normal start up times for irrigation.

Winter wheat will root down to depths of 1.6m to extract moisture but canopy expansion will be affected at a soil moisture deficit of 74 mm (50% available water capacity).

France and Germany too.

The same picture is being played out in France and Germany too. Both countries experienced an unusually dry March which has carried on into April.  EU wheat prices rose on Monday and were supported last week by fears the prolonged dry period was stressing wheat plants at a critical time of development after winter dormancy, reports Reuters. One French trader told Reuters today that "if it does not rain in the next 10 days, the situation is going to become critical”.

Over winter rainfall data UK

Figures show percentage rainfall compared to 30 year mean - source Met Office.