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France – winter cereals harvest on-going, good results expected

Winter cereals harvest is on-going in the south and will start in the next weeks in the centre and north with good expectations. Meteorological conditions depict a positive outlook for summer crops.

The summer is more humid than usual, with precipitations in the centre and north exceeding by 50% the seasonal values during the last month. By contrast, in Midi-Pyrenees’, Aquitaine and Auvergne the cumulated rainfall remained close to the average. The temperatures have been close to the seasonal values in almost all the regions.

Under these conditions the harvest of winter cereals is currently on-going without constraints in the South, where durum wheat is almost completely harvested. In the central and north regions, the abundant rainfalls registered during summer have benefited considerably soft wheat and winter barley during grain filling, and thus expectations are quite positive for the harvest. However, during ripening and maturity excess of rain could eventually affect the yield potential in Picardie, Nord Pas de Calais and Loire valley.

Spring barley is at the end of the grain filling stage and the crop indicators suggest a high yield potential. Especially in Champagne-Ardenne and Lorraine – where it has been used to replace soft wheat damaged by winter kill – the expectations are quite promising.

Germany – grain filling of winter cereals benefitted from rain

Rainfall assures adequate grain-filling for cereals and partly compensates for the dry spring. Yield forecasts are revised up for winter cereals now at 5 years average level. Rapeseed is expected to yield below the 5 years average. Prospects for root crops and maize are good.

The weather from 21 June until 15 July was rather unsettled in central and northern Germany. Temperatures remained low with average values mostly below 20 degrees resulting in below average temperature accumulation. A deficit of incoming radiation is recorded as well. More stable weather conditions prevailed in southern Germany (Baden-Württemberg, Bayern and parts of Sachsen) with seasonal temperatures and sunshine duration leading to a surplus of accumulated temperatures. Rainfall was abundant for the whole country and distributed over a high amount of rainy days. Also the regions which were previously too dry now received abundant rainfall. Due to the unstable atmospheric conditions some of the rainfall events were rather heavy with strong thunderstorms causing some flooding locally.

These weather conditions translate into good growing conditions during the grain filling and ripening for winter cereals in the south, whereas average conditions characterize the remaining part of the country. Soft wheat and rye are still at ripening whereas the winter barley harvest has just started and a couple of dry days is now needed. Rape seed, which is ripening earlier did benefit from the rain to a lesser extent, especially in Mecklenburg- Vorpommern and Brandenburg where the dry conditions in spring diminished the yield potential. Rape seed yield is forecast below the 5 years average.

Poland – overall positive conditions for crops

Two zones of different weather conditions: hot and dry south-east and cooler and wet north-west. All crops developed promisingly and the modelled crop parameters point to average or above-average yields.

Winter wheat is at the grain filling stage in the north-eastern half of the country, while in the remaining areas already at ripening. In the main production areas of Lubelskie and Dolnoslaskie, it is slightly advanced. Dry and hot conditions in south-eastern regions disturbed the formation of grains, whereas in the cooler and wetter western regions (e.g. Wielkopolskie) the storage organs reached above-normal values. Yield forecast was confirmed. Spring barley is slightly advanced and in ripening stage and is forecast to reach average yields. Rye matured throughout the country. Yield is expected to be higher than normal in the West, while the main production areas Mazowieckie and Lodzkie show modelled storage organs weights lower than average.

UK and Ireland – excessive rain and lack of sun lead to revising forecasts down

Important rainfall and low solar radiation have characterized the period of analysis (21 June to 15 July). These have contributed to making the period running from 1 April up to 15 July the wettest on record in our database (running since 1975), over the arable land throughout UK and Ireland. This period is also characterized by the lowest recorded average global radiation in Ireland and South-Western England. This accumulation of unfavourable meteorological conditions is expected to have jeopardized yield potential for all crops by subjecting them to intense disease pressure, limiting photosynthesis and exposing them to lodging. All forecasts have thus been revised down since our last Bulletin, when it was considered that yield potential could be maintained (at least for England, less so for Ireland) if proper summer conditions settled in. According to current weather forecasts, these may yet arrive after one more week of rain, as the jet stream is expected to move northwards to a more normal position. This could enable a fairer end to cereals in Ireland and England, and provide a much-needed boost to summer crops, but it may worsen the already bad situation of spring barley in Scotland as the wet front moves north. Rapeseed prospects remain low: the crop has reached maturity suffering from lodging after extensive rain during flowering and will not benefit from any improvement in the weather.

Spain and Portugal – persistent dry conditions, yields revised down again

Meteorological conditions during the last month, with no significant precipitation and hot temperatures in most of the regions (with the exception of the Cantabrian basin) have diminished the yield potential yield of non-irrigated crops as the lack of rainfall has been decisive in the critical grain filling stage.

The harvest of soft wheat and spring barley is about to finish in Spain and the forecast yields, due to the adverse meteorological conditions, have been revised down.

Italy and Slovenia – dry and hot conditions

Heat waves and dry conditions boosted transpiration demands to very high values. This will adversely affect yields of summer crops. Winter cereal yields are above average as compared to those from previous years.

Hungary – decreasing yield expectations

Dry and extremely hot weather notably diminished the yield outlook of summer crops in Hungary. The ripening of winter cereals was unfavourably accelerated and harvest started 10 days earlier than usual. The weather did not hamper the harvesting. Winter wheat yield forecast is moderate.

Romania – stressing drought conditions

A severe drought developed in Romania. Very high temperatures and a concurrent precipitation deficit led to intensive stress for summer crops decreasing biomass accumulation, canopy extension and consequently the yield expectations. Winter cereals are less affected by the dry weather which guaranteed good harvesting conditions.

Ukraine – dry and hot period

After a hot and dry period, recent promising rains permit keeping the yield forecasts for wheat and barley at a similar level to previously. Grain maize development hindered by high temperature.

Russia – long-standing drought results in bad yield outlook

Extreme hot weather ruled wide areas of the southern half of Russia in mid-June. Signs of a serious drought in South Russia are clearly visible in the remote sensing images. The harvest of winter cereals has started in the most southern regions and in the Black soil belt winter wheat is ripening, but elsewhere is in different phases of grain filling.

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The full report can be read here.

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