The MARS report issued on 25 March is forecasting a 4.4% increase in yield of winter wheat over last year across the EU27. Wheat yields are forecast to range from 1.47 t/ha in Portugal to 9.09 t/ha in Ireland. Winter barley yields are forecast to increase by only 2.3% across the EU 27 giving an average yield of 4.46 t/ha. Spring barley is expected to average 3.97 t/ha up 2.6% on last year for the EU27. However, there is no expected increae in yield for oilseed rape staying at around 3t/ha. The highest yields are forecast for Belgium at 4.17 t/ha.


UK Forecast

The forecast for UK winter wheat yield for this year's harvest is put at 8.02 t/ha up 20% on last year's 6.68 t/ha and up 5% on the rolling 5 year average. Winter barley yields are forecast to be slightly lower than last year at 6.31 t/ha whilst spring barley is forecast to be 5.25 t/ha up 6% on last year. Oilseed rape is forecast to yield 3.5 t/ha up on last year.

The report, however, does have this caveat on crop yield forecasts at this early stage stating that they are based on extrapolating the temporal trend of official yield figures of previous years. It would be nice if they were right.

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