The latest MARS harvest forecast from the European Commission, released on Monday, shows winter crops are performing better than average, with yield forecasts in Eastern Europe at record highs.

Winter cereals yields in Bulgaria and Romania are expected to reach record levels, and yields in Portugal and Spain are looking good. Across much of the rest of Europe, expectations are closer to the five year average (Poland, Cyprus and Greece have fallen below). For the EU as a whole, yields are expected to be well up, but the total harvest is not predicted to beat last year’s production.

A wet spring, lack of sunlight and high pest and disease pressures in northern and central Europe, including the Eastern UK and much of the north of France, have taken the edge off good crop development, according to the report from the EU’s Joint Research Centre.   

Even so, the UK’s harvest is expected to be ‘slightly above the five year average’. MARS acknowledges that high humidity and little sunlight in May and June, combined with the high disease pressures mean there is a relatively high margin for error in the predictions.

MARS is forecasting average UK wheat yields of 8.09 tonnes per hectare. The EU agriculture observatory said yields for other major cereal crops are expected to be variable, which conforms to early reports from grain merchants, who have concerns over oilseed rape. Barley quality is also expected to be variable, though yields do look to be above the five year average.

MARS concluded, "the harvesting of rapeseed and winter barley has started with mixed results, confirming the modest overall outlook”.