In just a month’s time, four expert speakers will address key issues in today’s grain and oilseeds markets at HGCA’s flagship annual conference.

The Grain Market Outlook conference in London on 14 October 2014 features Sergey Feofilov from UkrAgroconsult in Ukraine, Patrícia Luís-Manso from Platts speaking on European bioethanol, Julian McGill from LMC on the oilseed market and AHDB/HGCA’s Jack Watts giving a UK and global grain market update. The conference will be hosted by AHDB Chairman Peter Kendall.

The speaker line up will offer fresh insights into market movements as the International Grains Council (IGC) predicts a record global wheat crop at 713.4 million tonnes.

Jack Watts, AHDB/HGCA Lead Analyst said: “Currently markets really do look quite suppressed, essentially on the prospect of large global supplies.

“Ukraine is very topical, but the longer term effect of the ceasefire remains to be seen. Fundamentally, though, we’ve seen no real impact on the markets, and that’s why AHDB has asked Sergey to give an overview of what’s happening in the region and to explain why Ukraine is so important in the global market.”

He added: “Ethanol is a big factor for global grain markets and potentially the UK. Patricia’s paper will provide a backdrop to what’s happening in the European ethanol market, why it is so tough, and what current policy and economic drivers are. At the end of the day the EU, to a certain extent, is faced with the prospect of importing ethanol from the US. The question is - is that causing an issue for the EU and US markets?”

Speaking about the IGC’s prediction that global wheat production may reach 713.4 million tonnes this year, Jack said:

“The headline is ‘big production, lower prices’. However this is not a year to classify wheat as just wheat as there is enough quality issues across the northern hemisphere to segment the feed and milling markets.

“In Europe it’s principally been the French crop which has been affected by wet weather, which has impacted quality, and that has diverted a larger proportion than normal of the wheat crop towards the feed market, because it has not been suitable for milling grain for human consumption. That’s given huge support to European milling premiums.

“But there’s still a lot of uncertainty – where is the German market going? How much of the German wheat crop is the UK reliant on importing? Just how much of the German crop will be impacted by the wet weather?”

More wheat destined for the feed market, as well as the prospect of bigger maize crops around the world, is leading to tough competition between feed grains.

“It’s been fairly clear in the last few weeks that much of the global grain industry had become complacent about the prices on offer. The world is now revisiting prices that we’ve not seen for over four years- and just three to six months ago people were contemplating never having to see again,”

“Yet here we are back at these prices, and changing prices changes the whole economics of grain production and farm profitability.”

The AHDB/HGCA Grain Market Outlook conference takes place on Tuesday 14 October at the QEII conference centre in Westminster. Book your ticket online: hgca.com/events.