The second set of results from AHDB/HGCA’s Cereal Quality Survey have confirmed that the average nitrogen content of GB barley is the lowest since records began in 1977.

The Cereal Quality Survey, which analysed 26,513 barley samples from across GB, showed an average nitrogen content of 1.53%, lower than the three-year average of 1.68% and the lowest recorded result. The screening results improved from the results released in August, indicating that grain size is currently above the three-year average. The average specific weight, however, was lower than that recorded in August this year.

Amandeep Kaur Purewal, AHDB/HGCA Senior Analyst (Cereals and Oilseeds), said: “Overall GB barley quality is reasonable in terms of specific weight and grain size, and the low average nitrogen levels this year will be beneficial to the distilling sector. However, for brewers, who require a higher nitrogen content, this could lead to a more challenging year ahead.”

For wheat, the survey for 71,106 samples revealed a slight deterioration in quality compared with the initial results published at the end of August. However, specific weights and Hagbergs are still close to or above average.

Dr Purewal added: “The average protein content remains the limiting factor in meeting milling specifications, although millers do have the option to compensate for this by adding further gluten or imported wheat to the flour mix at an extra cost. However, there are also some technical limitations with adding extra gluten depending on the end-use. The decline in quality from the previous estimates is unsurprising given that more nabim group 3 and group 4 varieties now comprise the overall wheat sample.”

The final results of the Cereal Quality Survey will be published at the end of October/early November.

Barley

The updated results are based on 26,513 barley samples, almost three times higher than the sample size in August. The majority of samples originate from Scotland (32%) and Eastern England (31%). The improved regional representation means that current results provide a better insight into GB barley quality compared with August’s estimates. However, there is scope for these to change further as more samples are collated for the final release. Spring barley varieties account for 72% of the sample data analysed by 15 September.

Compared with the GB average, the average specific weight and nitrogen content for Scottish barley is lower at 65.1kg/hl and 1.45% respectively. At 96.3%, the proportion of Scottish grain retained by a 2.5mm sieve is higher than the GB average.

2012 is not included in the three-year GB average as adverse harvest conditions during that year led to particularly poor results, which skew the average.

1. 2014 provisional estimates are based on 26,513 barley samples

2. For historic data, visit www.hgca.com/markets/survey-results

• · At 66.4 kg/hl, the average specific weight is lower than that recorded in August (66.9 kg/hl) and matches 2011’s final figure. The range for 2014 is 61.1‒71.5 kg/hl.
• · For total barley samples, the average nitrogen content is now 1.53%, a slight reduction from August’s estimate of 1.55% and the lowest since records dating back to 1977. The range for 2014 is 1.18‒1.90%.
• · The average nitrogen content for winter barley is 1.61% (1.62% August), while for spring barley, it is 1.50% (1.47% in August).
• · Screening results have improved compared with the results published in August. 1.6% of grain passed through a 2.25 mm sieve (2.2% in August) and 95.8% of grain was retained by a 2.5 mm sieve (93.4% in August). Current results indicate that the grain size in 2014 is larger than the three-year average. For grain passing through a 2.25 mm sieve, the range for 2014 was 0‒5.2%, whilst the range for grain retained by a 2.5 mm sieve was 86.1‒100%.

Wheat

The sample size for wheat has increased from 20,683 in August to 71,106 and there is a better representation by region and nabim group. While Eastern and South-Eastern England still account for the majority of wheat samples analysed (52% and 18% respectively), the proportion of samples from other regions has increased at their expense. The bias towards milling wheat is now removed as more samples from nabim group 3 and group 4 varieties are incorporated providing a more accurate picture of the GB wheat crop. Group 4 varieties account for the majority of the samples analysed (37%). This is the largest share of group 4 samples seen in the history of the survey.

The updated results are subject to further change as more samples are analysed for the final release.

1. 2014 provisional estimates are based on 71,106 wheat samples

2. For historic data, visit www.hgca.com/markets/survey-results

• · At 77.3 kg/hl, the average specific weight is lower than the 78.7 kg/hl obtained for the results released in August, but is similar to last year’s final result and the three-year average. The range for 2014 is 71.4‒83.0 kg/hl.
• · The average Hagberg Falling Number is now 311 s (compared with 331 s in August) and is slightly below 2013’s final result. Nevertheless, the current result is still higher than the three-year average and one of the highest on record. The range for 2014 is 194‒421 s.
• · At 11.3%, the average protein content is lower than the 11.7% measured in August and is below the three-year average. The range for 2014 is 9.0‒13.7%.

The proportion of group 1 and 2 samples meeting the specification for high and medium quality milling wheat is currently lower than 2013’s final results, mainly due to the lower protein content.

Further details about the AHDB/HGCA Cereal Quality Survey can be found at www.hgca.com/markets/survey-results.