The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued its partially leaked second report on the impacts of climate change. The report was formally published on Monday, following meetings in Japan last week.

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The latest paper has been compiled by over 300 experts from 70 countries, and involved the work of almost 2,000 others. It is the second of four to be published over a twelve month period which began with the release of the last major report in September 2013.

The first report, released to coincide with climate talks between world leaders in Stockholm, showed that evidence of humanity's influence on the climate system is now apparent in most global regions and that this is threatening life as we know it on our planet. Since the first report was published in 1990, each new IPCC release has presented gradually more sobering findings and new evidence of the widening scope that the impacts of climate change will have. However, since 1990, emissions from burning fossil fuels have risen 60 per cent worldwide.  

Authors of the March report reiterated that the effects of climate change are already occurring in all global regions, "from the tropics to the poles, from small islands to large continents, and from the wealthiest countries to the poorest." They warned that the world is, in many cases, ill-prepared for risks coming from a changing climate.

Although optimism has tended to fade from recent reports, compared to the first published over 20 years ago, the latest IPCC offering concludes that there are still opportunities to respond to the more serious risks, though this will require immediate and fairly drastic action on emissions, in order to buy some time to avert the worst effects of global warming.

The authors put it frankly: "Future risks from a changing climate depend strongly on the amount of future climate change. Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe and pervasive impacts that may be surprising or irreversible."

Effect on agriculture and food security

Researchers found that extreme weather events will become more likely and more severe; floods, droughts and heatwaves will occur with increasing frequency and intensity. As the last IPCC report showed, we are already locked into a path of climate change, but experts believe that we can still influence how severe these changes will be.

According to the latest findings, the effects of climate change on agriculture are already being felt in some places. Changing weather patterns and extreme events are already affecting yields, and climate change-associated problems are set to worsen as the century progresses. Studies show that increases in crop yields – which will be needed to meet increasing demand towards the middle of the current century – have slowed, with yields plateauing in key agriculture areas.  The new batch of studies, which informed the Panel's latest report predict further impacts on crop yields, which could lead to more volatile food prices and consequently civil unrest.

Research led by Andy Challinor from University of Leeds, and published earlier this month ahead of the report's release, showed that climate change will have a more marked effect on agriculture – and sooner – than had previously been appreciated. The Leeds researchers also found that minor adaptation measures being adopted will prove inadequate in the face of changes expected to occur from the 2030s onwards. Professor Challinor warned that minor mitigation measures alone, such as small adjustments in the crop variety and planting date, will not suffice.

The IPCC authors also drew attention to inequality and the fact that some are more vulnerable than others to the effects of climate change. The Panel's Working Group warned that current estimates suggest climate change will exacerbate existing inequalities and make it harder for the World's poorest to overcome poverty.

Environment secretary Owen Paterson was criticised last year for suggesting the UK could adapt to climate change and playing down the first working group's findings. Professor Kevin Anderson, Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, slammed the Defra head's suggestion that there could be an up-side to climate change as "immoral." He pointed out that people in poorer countries are already dying as a result of these changes and warned, "His [Paterson's] view that we can muddle through climate change is a colonial, arrogant, rich person's view."

The World Health Organisation already estimates that 150,000 deaths each year around the world are already related to climate change.

Authors' warnings

The IPCC warned on Monday that "The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises." Vicente Barros, Co-Chair of Working Group II summarised, "We live in an era of man-made climate change. In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future."

Co-chair Chris Field also warned that, though adaptation measures are being slowly put in place, these are often reactive and do not focus on coming changes. "Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried. Governments, firms, and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation," Field said. "With high levels of warming that result from continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, risks will be challenging to manage, and even serious, sustained investments in adaptation will face limits."

Field added, "Understanding that climate change is a challenge in managing risk opens a wide range of opportunities for integrating adaptation with economic and social development and with initiatives to limit future warming. We definitely face challenges, but understanding those challenges and tackling them creatively can make climate-change adaptation an important way to help build a more vibrant world in the near-term and beyond."

The next IPCC report is scheduled for release in April, with a fourth and final release in October.

Reactions to the report

Reacting to the report, Energy and Climate Change secretary Edward Davey said, "The science has spoken. Left unchecked, climate change will have far reaching consequences for our society." Davey claimed that "The UK is leading from the front and working with our European partners. We've adopted some of the most ambitious climate change targets and are investing in low carbon and energy efficiency technologies."

However, though figures released last week show greenhouse gas emissions fell last year, and were much lower than 1990 levels, greens have been highly critical of the UK government's support for further fossil fuel exploration and shale gas 'fracking' over green energy.

Friends of the Earth's Executive Director, Andy Atkins said on Monday, "If the UK Government wants to show international leadership it must abandon its short-sighted championing of fracking and oil, and get fully behind energy efficiency and our home-grown renewable power potential instead."

Atkins continued, "We can't continue to ignore the stark warnings of the catastrophic consequences of climate change on the lives and livelihoods of people across the planet. Giant strides are urgently needed to tackle the challenges we face, but all we get is tiny steps, excuses and delays from most of the politicians that are supposed to represent our interests."

Mike Childs, head of policy, research and science at Friends of the Earth went one step further. He said, "Frankly, it's time to get angry [about] the grave injustices heaped on the poorest in the world by the fossil fuel giants and their mates in the establishment." Childs pointed to research published last year, which found that 90 companies are responsible for two-thirds of polluting greenhouse gas emissions and that of these, all but seven are oil and gas companies.

IPCC findings - Key risks for people living in Europe:

–      Increased economic losses and more people affected by flooding in river basins and coasts, as urbanisation continues, sea levels rise and peak river flows increase;

–      Increased water restrictions. Significant reduction in water availability from river abstraction and from groundwater resources combined with increased water demand (eg for irrigation, energy and industry and domestic use);

–      Increased economic losses and people affected by extreme heat events: impacts on health and well-being, labour productivity, crop production and air quality