International grains council - Grain market Report

Market Commentary

After a turbulent July, export prices of grains and oilseeds mostly strengthened in the past month as bullishness linked to crop uncertainties, especially in the US, mostly overcame the generally negative global financial sentiment and steep declines in equities. The dominant concerns were about the tightening outlook for maize and higher quality wheat, as well as the impact of national policy measures on Asian rice export prices. Heavy buying of Black Sea region grain narrowed the price gap with other origins.

Wheat export prices mostly advanced over the period, with higher milling grades registering the biggest gains because of North American spring crop worries and rain damage in parts of Europe. Some CME maize futures set new contract highs, triggered by further reductions in US yield forecasts and their implications for 2011/12 closing stocks. Nearby CME soyabean futures, after dipping to five-month lows because of improved US crop conditions and falling energy markets, more than made up lost ground as Midwest yield prospects worsened, although slower than anticipated growth in China’s imports was a restraining factor. Rice export values in Asia received a further boost from price support measures in Thailand, remaining uncertainties about the resumption of private sector non-basmati exports by India and strong buying, especially by Indonesia. Recent price developments are reflected in IGC's Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) which is now calculated and published daily on the Council’s website. Overall, the index moved up by 1.4% over the past month, to 292, the increase mainly resulting from advances in its maize and rice components (trade-weighted, as at 24 August).

Table - World Estimates Million Tons

Outlook for 2011/12

World grains production is expected to rise significantly from last year's reduced outturn, but the forecast is lowered from July due to a sharp cut in the US maize crop estimate. While a downward adjustment is also made to the 2011/12 consumption forecast, global end-of-season grain stocks are nevertheless placed lower than before, projected to decline by 4% from their estimated level at the start of the season. Total production is now forecast at 1,808m. tons, down by 9m. from the previous month but still significantly higher than in 2010/11 (1,748m.).

While the wheat crop figure is raised by 3m. tons, to 677m. (651m.), the world maize production forecast is reduced by 10m. tons, to 849m. (824m.) because of the further decline in US yield prospects. In view of the tightness in the US maize market, with prices likely to stay firm, also in relation to wheat, feed use of grain is placed 3m. tons lower than before, at 766m., but still up from the past year's 749m. Global feed use of maize is trimmed by 4m. tons, but that of wheat is placed slightly higher than before, at a twenty-year peak of 125m. tons, reflecting ample availabilities of lower quality grades.

With the reduction in the global production total only partly absorbed by a cut in the consumption forecast, the projection of world carryover stocks in 2011/12 is reduced by 5m. tons, to 342m. This would represent a drop of 16m. tons from the estimated carry-in level, mainly due to the expected decline in maize inventories. In particular, end-season stocks in the eight major exporters are projected to fall to 112m. tons, down from 128m. at the start of 2011/12 and from 170m. the year before. These would be the smallest since 2003/04.

The global trade forecast for grains in 2011/12 is almost unchanged at 244m. tons, up 1m. from the year ended this June. Bigger than previously projected imports lift the wheat figure by 1.5m. tons, to 128.2m., but this is balanced by a reduction for maize trade, now placed at 92.7m. tons. The substantial recovery in Black Sea region supplies will result in a major shift back to this origin, especially for wheat, with the downturn in US maize exports also partly offset by expected record Ukraine shipments of this grain.

Wheat: World wheat supply and demand are forecast to be broadly balanced in 2011/12, with a rise in production matched by higher use. With winter wheat harvests nearing completion in the northern hemisphere, better than expected results in the EU, CIS and China outweigh the somewhat reduced prospects in the US and Australia, and the forecast of world production is raised by 3m. tons, to 677m. (651m.). Much of the rise in supply compared with last month is absorbed by a further increase in projected feed wheat demand, contributing to a larger than normal year-on-year upturn in total world wheat consumption, to 678m. tons (657m.). The global carryover is expected to be broadly unchanged, placed 1m. tons higher than in the last Market Report, at 191m. However, stocks of the highest-protein milling wheats are expected to tighten, especially in the US and Canada, contributing to a 3.9m. ton fall in the combined carryover in the eight major exporters, to 64.6m. This is up by 2.0m. tons from last month’s figure, including larger projections for the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

Maize (corn): The US crop forecast is cut sharply from last month, but production prospects in the southern hemisphere have improved and the 2011/12 maize crop is still projected to be the largest on record at 849m. tons (824m.). Demand is expected to increase, but at a slower pace. Growth in feed use will be limited mainly to developing countries, with meat output in most industrialised nations likely to increase relatively slowly due to high feed prices and flat demand. Growing supplies of competitively priced lower grade wheat will limit demand for maize, while use of distillers dried grains (DDG) will also remain high. After rising sharply in recent years, maize used for the manufacture of fuel ethanol is forecast to show very little growth, with the figure for the US projected to be unchanged from 2010/11. EU import needs are seen lower than before and, with some buyers in Asia likely to further boost feed wheat purchases, the 2011/12 world trade forecast is trimmed by 1.4m. tons, to 92.7m., almost unchanged from last year.

Rice. World rice production (milled basis) in 2011/12 is projected to increase by 2%, to a record 457m. tons. This assumes larger outturns in Far East Asia, including in India, where prospects for this year's kharif crop are generally favourable. Increased supplies should also enable a further rise in that country’s consumption, with world use forecast to expand to an all-time peak of 457m. tons. With global production and consumption expected to be broadly in balance, the 2011/12 carryover is set to show little overall change, at a nine-year high of 99m. tons. Within the total, inventories in the five major exporters are expected to climb to 30.9m. tons (29.2m.). World trade in calendar 2012 is projected to expand by 1%, to a record 32.2m. tons, with larger shipments to several countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Oilseeds soyabeans: World soyabean production in 2011/12 is projected at 258.1m. tons, a decline of 3% from last year, mostly reflecting prospects for a smaller US outturn. Solid demand from Asia (China) will spur further growth in world trade in 2011/12, forecast to rise to a record 96.4m. tons (92.5m.). Global soyameal trade is placed at 60.3m. tons (58.3m.), the year-on-year expansion resulting from bigger purchases by the EU and Far East Asia. * Excluding rice © 2011