Brazil’s coffee output could actually fall despite forecasters putting it at record levels this year. This could prompt the rise in prices of Arabica beans.

Conab, the Brazilian crop bureau, in its first estimate for Brazil's 2014 harvest reckon it will level at 46.53m-50.15m bags.

The estimate, which followed an industry survey, raises the potential for a drop from last year's harvest, which it reckons stands at 49.15m bags, and is a far cry from figures of 60m bags common in the market earlier in the year as Brazil's plantations enjoyed apparently ideal growing conditions.

Not since 1999-00 has coffee output in an "off" year beaten than in the previous "on" year.

However, the forecast follows mounting market talk that earlier production estimates may prove too optimistic, with Somar Meteorologia this week cutting its crop forecast by 3m bags to 51m bags, citing the strongest December rains in 90 years in Brazil's coffee belt.

Volcafe on Monday also estimated Brazil's coffee output at 51m bags, saying a "disappointing fixation of flowers... due to high productive stress from two large crops in a row, despite textbook weather".

A harvest at this level would be insufficient to cover demand, with Volcafe saying that, on a global level, "our 2014-15 statistical balance becomes a deficit of around 5m bags, coming after two years of statistical surplus in 2012-13 and 2013-14".

New York Arabica coffee futures have risen by more than 9% so far in 2014.

However, rain is also potentially going to boost growth therefore too many assumptions cannot be made yet.