The International Grain Council's latest report states that despite some market uncertainties in the past month about crop outlooks in certain regions, especially in North America, world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output prospects remained generally favourable. Amid mostly good weather, upward revisions in the EU, the CIS, Brazil, North Africa and China boost the projection for global production by 21m t m/m (month-on-month), to 1,968m, only 2% short of the previous year’s record.

About half of the increase in supply since last time is absorbed by greater projected use, mainly for feed, with consumption now seen marginally higher year-on-year, at 1,981m t. The forecast for carryover stocks is lifted to 426m t, only a small contraction year-on-year. At 308m t, grains trade is placed 2m higher m/m, and only modestly down year-on-year.


Even though the 2015/16 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) harvest is expected to fall slightly short of the previous season’s record, overall supplies are seen posting only a small year-on-yeardecline, with the high level of stocks at the start of the year mostly compensating for the drop in output.

World consumption is projected to marginally surpass the previous year’s all-time peak, to 1,981m t. Population
growth will sustain gains in human food use, up by 1% year-on-year. Solid animal feed demand is also anticipated, seen nearly matching the high level of the year before.

Industrial consumption is projected to expand by 1%, mainly driven by gains in the starch and brewing sectors,
with use for ethanol almost unchanged year-on-yearamid lacklustre profits.

While carryover stocks are projected to contract, they are expected to remain comfortable, at 426m t, about 12% above the average in the prior five years. Most of the year-on-year reduction is in the major exporters, including declines in the US (mainly maize), Russia (wheat and barley) and Ukraine (maize), but a slight accumulation in the EU (wheat and oats).