ICSA Beef chair John Cleary has said that the 3.8% drop in the national cattle herd - amounting to more than 276,000 head in just 12 months - is the thin edge of the wedge and has warned that the decline could double next year if current trends continue. “These numbers are not a surprise to farmers on the ground, but they should be a wake-up call for policymakers. According to Department of Agriculture figures, we’ve lost over 276,000 cattle in the space of a year. The national herd is declining at a worrying pace, and unless there is urgent intervention, the exodus from cattle farming will only accelerate,” he said.

Continuing, Mr Cleary said, “What we are now witnessing is the cumulative impact of policies that just keep making it increasingly difficult to keep cattle. Beef-sired cattle numbers are down over 92,000 head in just 12 months, and if this trend continues, we could see a decline of double that magnitude next year. This is not sustainable, and it signals real danger for the future of our family farms and rural economies.”

 “With the threat of the CAP being dismantled and the nitrates rules tightening, the message from the top couldn’t be clearer - you’re better off cutting stock than even trying to stay productive. Farmers are finding it harder and harder to maintain viable stocking rates because they are being hammered by policies that are making it nearly impossible to keep going.”

 “There is also the very real prospect that with fewer cattle in the system and reduced factory throughput, we’ll see less competition, with smaller processors being squeezed out. That will inevitably hit farmers in the pocket through weaker prices. We cannot afford to let that happen.”

 Mr Cleary said that while live exports have increased and continue to play a vital role in balancing the market, they may not be a long-term solution. “Over-reliance on live exports is risky. The real issue is that fewer calves are being born because fewer cows are being kept - and that is down to a policy environment that undermines confidence in the future.”

 In addition, Mr Cleary said, “The widening gap between what older and younger farmers are prepared to put up with should also sound alarm bells. The older generation are increasingly worn out by the paperwork and the policy swings. Meanwhile, young farmers are watching all this and asking themselves: why would I sign up for this? The risk is that both groups decide it’s not worth it.”

 Concluding, Mr Cleary said, “If policymakers don’t act now to restore confidence and give farmers a reason to stay in business, the collapse of the national herd will become unstoppable - and with it, the collapse of rural economies across the country.”