The HGCA has released its global market update which, amongst other revelations, shows that wheat, maize and soya were all at multi-week lows on Friday, while industry representatives have offered commentary on this year’s harvest in the UK.

The lows, according to HGCA analysts were due to concerns over Greece’s potential debt default and wider issues in the US and EU. CBOT wheat was at $232.8 per tonne, with maize and soya at $251.4/T and $471.4/t respectively. It said that the latest figures from private analysts showed the US maize area was below the USDA estimate at 37.2Mha. Furthermore, the International Grains Council cut the global maize output by 4Mt last week. The current figure is 845 Mt. image expired

However, despite the long term uncertainty the threat of La Nina brings, the news is not all bad.The IGC reported that the global wheat area could increase by 1.5 per cent next year, which would bring the global wheat area higher than its 2008 and 2009 position. This, HGCA said, is in response to favourable prices overall.  

The area given to wheat in the EU is expected to remain constant, though in Germany wet weather for rapeseed plantings may prove a boon for wheat, which can be planted later. However, the wheat area is expected to decline slightly in France on rapeseed’s profitability this year. Continued drought, which has hampered farmers all summer is delaying plating in the southern USA, although HGCA said planting could continue through to late November.

In retrospect, the UK harvest has been called “a mixed bag” by analysts. Taking part in an internet debate, NFU East Anglia combinable crops chairman Andrew Watts revealed that this year wheat yields on his Hertfordshire farm alone varied from 4t/ha to 12.4t/ha.

Over the course of the debate he revealed that, for the UK, a variable year had resulted in higher than average yields for oilseed rape, though peas, barley and especially beans had fared worse than average, while wheat remained around average.

In the spring fears for the rapeseed and wheat crops were widespread; after one of the driest springs on record the NFU predicted wheat yields would be up to 14 per cent below average in June. However, David Sheppard of Gleadell grains described the wheat crop as “the best I have ever seen.” While yield is about average, this year’s wheat is of high quality.

Rapeseed also fared much better than had previously been speculated. MR Sheppard commented on the stroke of luck late in the growing season, “I don’t think merchants, agronomists or farmers really know how that happened.”