Farming News - Harvest Yields Survey results highlights climate change challenges

Harvest Yields Survey results highlights climate change challenges

18 Dec 2018
Agronomy / Frontdesk / Arable

 The publication of Strutt & Parker’s annual Harvest Yields Survey offers a fresh end-of-year perspective on the 2018 season and points to the challenge climate change may pose to traditional growing patterns.

At a time when many are looking ahead to 2019, the analysis highlights the difficulties many faced this summer, showing that yields were lower than in 2017 for everything apart from second wheats and winter barley.

The data is based on the performance of combinable crops across nearly 50,000 hectares in the East of England, Midlands and South East England.

According to the results, the overall winter wheat yield for 2018 was 8.5t/ha, which was 7% lower than in 2017 and 9% lower than the five-year average, although higher than the DEFRA national average of 7.8t/ha.

First wheats averaged 8.7t/ha (down from 9.5t/ha in 2017), while second wheats averaged 8.0t/ha – 3% higher than last year, when second wheats struggled because of a dry start to the spring which limited the uptake of nitrogen.

Tom FitzGerald, farm consultant and agronomist with Strutt & Parker, said: “These new results are a reminder of the difficult growing season many farmers faced because of the extreme weather in 2018, although there were positives such as some high quality crops, negligible drying costs and higher grain prices.

“While we had good establishment of autumn crops, a prolonged winter and wet spring delayed the drilling of spring crops and this was then followed by drought conditions from the end of May until mid-August, with ear emergence, flowering and grain fill all affected as a result.

“The weather is always a huge unknown for farmers so, once again in 2019, the priority should be focusing on the areas which growers can influence, such as boosting performance though close attention to detail and finding ways to make cost savings.

“However, recent analysis from scientists at the Met Office suggests we now live in a climate in which heatwaves will occur much more frequently due to climate change, so growers need to start thinking of ways to adapt to less moderate and predictable weather than we have been used to.

“We already know that arable crop production is set to get tougher in the UK, with margins likely to tighten as direct payments are phased out as part of the Agricultural Bill. The chemical control of pests, weeds and diseases is also becoming more challenging, due to the reduction in available chemistry and growing resistance problems. Growers may want to consider whether there are new crops which could help to make their rotation more resilient to extremes of weather, for example by improving drainage and soil microflora or by reducing soil borne pests and diseases.”

The crop least affected by the drought was winter barley, as the crop had already filled its grains and senesced by the time the drought took hold.  Average yields of 7.7t/ha were 5% up on 2017 and 2% up on the five-year average. Spring barley yields averaged 5.6t/ha, 5% lower than in 2017 and 10% below the five-year average.

Winter oilseed rape averaged 3.4t/ha, compared to 3.7t/ha in 2017, with the crops struggling to maintain the number of seeds set per pod which limited yield potential. Bean yields dropped by around 30% with the drought conditions hindering seed fill and also affecting quality.

Table: Average yields for 2018 compared with the last five years (t/ha)

 

Winter
Wheat

1st
Wheat

2nd
Wheat

Winter
Barley

Spring
Barley

Winter
OSR

Winter Beans

Spring
Beans

2018

8.5

8.7

8.0

7.7

5.6

3.4

2.9

2.8

% change from 2017

-7%

-8%

3%

5%

-5%

-8%

-31%

-27%

2017

9.1

9.5

7.8

7.4

6.0

3.7

4.2

3.8

2016

8.9

9.2

8.8

6.7

6.4

2.9

3.9

3.9

3 year average

8.8

9.2

8.1

7.3

6.0

3.3

3.6

3.7

2015

10.2

10.9

9.3

8.3

7.0

3.7

3.5

4.2

2014

10.1

10.2

9.8

8.1

7.0

3.8

3.5

4.2

5 year average

9.3

9.6

8.6

7.6

6.3

3.5

3.6

3.8

% change from 5 year average

-9%

-10%

-7%

2%

-10%

-3%

-18%

-28%

To read the full results of the yield survey visit: https://www.struttandparker.com/knowledge-and-research/strutt-parker-yield-results-harvest-2018