The NFU has revealed that this year’s wash out weather has had significant impacts on yields and suggested the poor harvest may even affect domestic food prices.

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Following the wettest spring and second wettest summer on record, and further deluges which caused flooding in the North of England just as farmers were getting back up to speed with harvesting after an initial two week delay, yields and quality of a variety of crops have been affected. This year’s harvest was initially delayed due to crops’ poor development after months of cool, wet weather over one of the dimmest summers on record.

The results of the Union’s members’ survey show that, whilst some major arable crops grown in the UK performed well in difficult conditions this year, wheat has suffered. Wheat yields were down nearly 15 percent against the five year average.  

The survey showed:

• Wheat: Yields are down 14.1 percent on five year average, from 7.8 to 6.7 tonnes per hectare. Area planted is up 3.8% on five year average, from 1.916 million hectares to 1.988 million hectares, meaning estimated production from the UK is down 11.1% on five year average, from 14.915 million tonnes to 13.250 million tonnes.

• Winter Barley: Yields are up 1.6% on five year average, from 6.3 to 6.4 tonnes per hectare. Area is up 0.5% on five year average, from 389,000 hectares to 391,000 hectares, with estimated production up 0.6% on five year average, from 2.472 million tonnes to 2.486 million tonnes.

• Spring Barley: Yields are down 7.4% on the five year average, from 5.4 to 5.0 tonnes per hectare. Area is down 1.2% on five year average, from 604,000 hectares to 597,000 hectares and estimated production down 9.1% on five year average, from 3.255 million tonnes to 2.958 million tonnes.

• Oilseed Rape: Yields are up 5.9% on five year average, from 3.4 to 3.6 tonnes per hectare. Area is up 18.6% on five year average, from 639,000 hectares to 758,000 hectares with estimated production up 25.5% on five year average, from 2.196 million tonnes to 2.755 million tonnes.

Across the UK, arable farmers and horticulturalists have expressed dismay at the year’s poor conditions. In the summer, adverse weather conditions from the mild start to the year to March’s late frosts and subsequent rain were shown to have severely dinted yields of a range of soft fruits, apples and pears. Now, with Halloween approaching, farmers in Lincolnshire have warned that pumpkins will be more expensive, smaller and less appealing than in previous years due to the year’s weather.  

It was announced this week that award-winning West Sussex vintner Nyetimber would be scrapping its entire harvest and would not produce any wine this year.

Senior NFU staff suggested the shortfall in wheat in particular could exacerbate problems being seen in the grain markets. Elsewhere in Europe, drought has curtailed yields that had previously looked promising. The same pattern has been repeated in the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan and other Black Sea States.  The UK’s devastating wheat harvest is expected to see the country become a net importer of the grain for the first time in a decade.

On Wednesday (10th October) NFU chief combinable crops adviser Guy Gagen commented on the bleak overall picture. He said, "We have seen a relatively low wheat yield this year, below seven tonnes per hectare. This is something not seen in the UK since the late 1980s."

However, he did say that the situation could have been worse were it not for investments in grain drying and handling facilities and pointed out that there have been some success stories in 2012. He continued, "Results have been mixed across the main arable crops in 2012, and the average results hide extreme variations across the country. Yields for some crops have performed better than average in 2012 with results for barley reported as good for malting and around average for rapeseed in terms of oil content and yield."

As well as the potential for rising food crops to affect the world’s poorest, many of whom rely on grains currently fetching unattainably high prices to survive, the NFU said the prospect of high prices throughout 2013 does not bode well for livestock producers. Cereals prices will impact heavily on pig and poultry farmers in particular, at a time when these farmers are already feeling the effects of rising input costs elsewhere.

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