Ukraine’s grain exports had reached 10.8m tonnes as of 17 October, down 35% year on year, with wheat accounting for about 4m tonnes, down 63% year on year, and corn 5.9m tonnes, almost triple of the volume a year ago.

Ukraine is keeping its forecast on winter wheat sowings at 3.8m ha, despite delays caused by unfavourable weather. This would compare with 6m ha sown last year, although only 4.6m ha was harvested due to the invasion.

Russian farmers

Russian farmers are expected to reduce winter sowings due to adverse weather, low prices and the impact of an export tax. The Russian agriculture ministry has planned an export quota of 25.5m tonnes for the February to June 2023 period. This is considered generousand should not limit exports according to some local experts.

Meanwhile in Argentina the Rosario Grain Exchange has further cut its estimate of Argentina’s 2022/23 wheat crop to 13.7m tonnes, the lowest since 2014/15, as continued dryness hits production. Also in the southern hemisphere despite USDA raising Australia’s wheat production and export projections, ongoing heavy rains in eastern Australia continue to threaten final yields and quality.

Finally UK prices traded down £3.50/t on the week, mainly influenced by global events but also pressured by a stronger pound after Rishi Sunak’s rise to PM, which seems to have ticked many of the boxes with the economic and financial sectors.