The latest Gleadell grain market report shows that reductions in weather concerns and higher than expected crops around the world are easing commodity prices.  

With the USDA out tomorrow, the main focus of traders will again be on the corn and soy reports. Improving weather in South America may trim losses expected on soybean/corn crop projections, with many analysts expecting little change on the US/Global wheat supply and demand estimates.

Weather has been the driver for markets over the past few weeks and the sign of improving conditions does not bode well for commodity prices. With the severe weather easing, supplies of competitively priced grain from the Black Sea region is starting to re-emerge onto the export markets. The ‘sell-off’ this week, linked to fresh global economic growth concerns, again warned the trade how markets can become influenced by the macro-economics, however bullish they appear. 

Summary

• Russian 2012/13 grain crop seen only 6-8% in poor condition and indicates country could have another large crop.
• Russian 2012/13 wheat crop seen at 57mln/t, up from 56.2mln/t this year with grain exports seen falling to 25mln/t.
• Weather improving the outlook for summer and winter crops, both in South America and part of Europe/SU.
• EU prices slip as renewed concerns about global economic growth triggers a broad-based decline in equities/commodities.
• Rain lifts Argentine 2011/12 early seeded soy crops, but showers are too late for early planted corn.
• Indian 2012/13 wheat production seen at record 87.5mln/t, exports placed at 1.5 mln/t, USDA.
• HGCA announce a 3% increase in plantings by 1December 2011 at 1.862 ha.
• Winter damage to wheat emerges in eastern France - limited impact on crops elsewhere in western Europe.
• Ukrainian grain exports fell 25% in February as severe cold weather hampered transportation to port facilities.
• Australian 2012/13 wheat output seen down 15% at 25mln/t, exports seen at 21mln/t.