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Wheat

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 0.4 million tons on a 1.4-million-ton production increase that is partially offset by decreased beginning stocks. Production increases for India, Kazakhstan, Australia, Brazil, and Canada are partially offset by reductions for the EU and China. Most changes are attributable to harvest reports and government data. The Australia increase is based on continued excellent growing conditions thus far in the growing season, with yields projected to be nearly record high. Brazil is also experiencing favorable growing conditions with yields projected record high. 

Global exports are raised 2.1 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan, both on larger crops. Export gains are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU exports on the continued decline in supplies. 

Total global use is up 4.2 million tons with increases in both food and feed use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 3.8 million tons but remain record large.

Coarse grain

Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast down 2.8 million tons to 1,319.7 million, but still above the record reached in 2014/15. The 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher consumption, larger trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised, as relatively favourable corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to boost first-crop planted area at the expense of soybeans. 

Barley production is raised for Argentina, Australia, and Canada. China corn production is lowered, based on drier-than-normal conditions during July and August in western Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia. EU corn and barley production are reduced; even with lower barley production, EU internal market prices are expected to favor greater barley feeding, offsetting reduced corn feeding. Russia barley production is down based on lower- than-expected yields for spring barley.

Oilseed

Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 544.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. A reduction for rapeseed is offset with gains for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed. 

Lower soybean production forecasts for Brazil, India, and Canada are more than offset by higher production for the United States and China. Brazil soybean production is reduced on lower area as relatively strong corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to increase first-crop corn planting. Projected soybean production is reduced for India on lower area and yields. Lower yields reflect excessive rainfall throughout the major producing region for July and August. Soybean production is reduced for Canada on lower yields as reported by Statistics Canada. China soybean production is raised as a higher area forecast more than offsets a lower yield. 

Global rapeseed production is reduced slightly with reduced forecasts for the EU and Russia partly offset by an increase for Canada. The 2016/17 Canada rapeseed crop is raised with both area and yield adjusted in line with the final estimates for the 2015/16 crop recently issued by Statistics Canada. Other changes include increased peanut production for India and increased sunflowerseed production for Argentina.

Global oilseed trade for 2016/17 is reduced this month mainly reflecting reduced soybean imports for China and reduced soybean exports for Brazil and Canada. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed imports are increased for the EU partly offsetting lower rapeseed production. Global oilseed stocks for 2016/17 are projected slightly higher this month mainly reflecting the sharp increase in ending stocks of rapeseed in Canada and increased soybean stocks for the United States.

Read the full report here