The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) published by the USDA yesterday doesn't hold much good news for struggling commodity prices. Everything bar cotton is projected at or near previous ending stocks.

Global Wheat

Global wheat supplies are projected to rise fractionally from 2014/15 as increased beginning stocks more than offset a slight decline in production from the previous year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 718.9 million tons, the second highest total on record. Foreign production is down 9.2 million tons with reductions for EU, India, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for China, Turkey, Morocco, Australia, Iran, and Syria.

Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than in 2014/15 with higher food use more than offsetting a reduction in world wheat feeding.

Global import demand for 2015/16 is lower with the largest reductions coming from Turkey, Iran, Morocco, and Syria all on greatly improved crop prospects. Exports are lower for Canada, India, EU, Russia, and Ukraine, but higher for Argentina and Australia.

Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 203.3 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2014/15.

Global Course Grain

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 1,505.1 million tons, up 9.6 million tons from 2014/15 with the increase mainly reflecting larger corn beginning stocks and production for China.

Global corn production for 2015/16 is projected at 989.8 million tons, down from the 2014/15 record, largely reflecting the smaller projected U.S. crop. Declines in 2015/16 corn production are also expected for EU, Brazil, Ukraine, and Mexico. In addition to China, where corn production is projected up 12.3 million tons, corn production is expected higher for South Africa, India, Canada, Russia, and Argentina.

Global corn consumption for 2015/16 is projected at a record 990.4 million tons, 13.0 million tons higher than in 2014/15, with notable increases for China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Canada, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Mexico.

Corn imports for 2015/16 are projected higher year-to-year for EU, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea, and Mexico. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine, Brazil, and EU, but raised for South Africa, Argentina, and India compared with 2014/15.

Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 191.9 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2014/15.

Global Oilseed

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.2 million tons, slightly below 2014/15. Global soybean production is projected at 317.3 million tons, almost unchanged from 2014/15 with gains for Brazil, India, Paraguay, and Ukraine offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and China. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 57.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from 2014/15 with higher area but lower yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 97.0 million tons, up 2.5 million on higher area. China soybean production is projected at 11.5 million tons, down 0.85 million as producers shift to more profitable crops.
 
Total oilseed supplies are up 2.8 percent from 2014/15. With crush projected to increase 2.3 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 107.4 million tons, up 8.3 million from the revised 2014/15 stock estimate.
 
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015/16. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.0 percent in China, accounting for 24 percent of global protein consumption gains.
 
Global soybean exports are projected at 122 million tons, up 3.8 percent from 2014/15. China soybean imports are projected at 77.5 million tons, up 4 million from the revised 2014/15 projection. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.6 percent in 2015/16 led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.

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