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Global wheat trade for 2015/16 is raised with exports up 1.3 million tons on larger supplies, expected policy changes in Argentina, and stronger demand in several importing countries.

Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine. The Argentina change is based on the expectation that the new government will reduce export restrictions. The Canada change is on a larger crop as well as a strong pace to date. The Ukraine change is also on a fast pace as well as strong feed wheat demand in Southeast Asia. Partially offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for EU exports on a slow pace of licenses and competition, especially from Black Sea origins.

The largest import increases are 0.4 million tons for Ethiopia on expectations of additional tenders in response to emergency food needs, and 0.3 million tons each for Indonesia and Thailand on increased feed wheat purchases.

Total world wheat consumption for 2015/16 is down 0.2 million tons. The biggest change is a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU feed wheat that is mostly offset by increased consumption in several other countries, notably 0.3 million-ton-increases each for Indonesia and Thailand.

Global ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher with large increases for the EU and Canada partially offset by decreases for Argentina and Ukraine.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 529.0 million tons, down 2.0 million tons with foreign oilseeds accounting for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 320.1 million tons, down 0.9 million. The India soybean crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 8.0 million on lower yields resulting from inconsistent rainfall during the growing season and late-season heat. Larger projections for Canada, Russia, and Ukraine partly offset the reduction for India.
 
Global rapeseed production is projected at 67.5 million tons, up 0.5 million with a larger crop in Canada only partly offset by a lower forecast for India. Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 million tons to 17.2 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. The India crop is reduced on lower projected area, reflecting planting progress to date.
 
Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia and Malaysia for 2015/16 reflecting unusually dry conditions from June through October 2015. The Indonesia crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 33.0 million and the Malaysia crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 20.5 million. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China and Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 147.7 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean exports account for most of the change with higher projections for Argentina, Serbia, and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised for Pakistan, Taiwan, and Iran. Rapeseed exports are also higher with an increase for Canada only partly offset by a lower projection for Australia. Global oilseed crush is projected lower primarily on reduced rapeseed and soybean crush for India. For Pakistan, increased soybean crush partly offsets lower rapeseed and cottonseed crush.

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 95.1 million tons, up 1.0 million mainly reflecting increased rapeseed stocks in Canada. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected at 16.1 million tons, down 2.3 million mainly on lower palm oil stocks in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India.

Full report here