Wheat markets

• US farmers plant corn early due to warmest March on record – risk of damaging late-spring frosts.

• EU’s crop marketing unit estimates 1.7% rise in 2012 soft wheat crop’s yield to an average 5.67t/hectare.

• Russian Prime Minister Putin sees 2012/13 grain export at 25-27mln t – crop similar to this season – 94mln t.

• Ukraine have exported 12.6mln t of grain so far this season (3.2mln wheat/7.1mln corn/1.8mln barley). There are reports the country is to harvest at least 45mln t of grain in 2012 – domestic consumption of 26mln t.

• Egypt’s GASC purchases 120tmt (60tmt US / 60tmt Argentine) for May 11-20 shipment – prices well below EU values.

• USDA attaché forecasts Australian 2012/13 wheat production falling to 27mln t due to declining crop area.

• USDA attaché predicts Argentine 2012/13 wheat production falling to 12mln t due to lower planted area.

• Argentine ministry estimates 2011/12 soybean crop at 44mln t (USDA at 46.5mln), corn at 20.8mln t (USDA at 22.0mln).

Summary

Markets have been trading with caution ahead of the USDA planting and stocks reports due out Friday 30th. The recent dip in corn price seems to have already factored in that there will be more planted acres for corn. Traders are nervous about the USDA stock report because it has not matched recently with market expectations, resulting in big price swings. Corn futures have fallen by the daily limit on the day of the past three quarterly stocks reports.

Wheat markets are currently in a tug-of-war battle between ideal planting/growing conditions in the US and continued weather concerns across Western Europe. Winter crop losses are still being assessed in France, and the market focus is now on the spring drought rather than the winter freeze. EU wheat prices are well out against US/South American origins but, with French and UK balance sheets looking finely balanced, this currently is of little concern.

Market direction will be driven by Friday’s reports and, if deemed bearish, will produce the usual ‘knee-jerk’ reaction. One word of caution is that larger than expected areas for 2012/13 does little for 2011/12 demand. With uncertainty still surrounding China and their import needs, and South American soybean and corn crops far from certain, lower prices could encourage buying interest from the major importers.

Oilseed Markets  - Willie Wright, Oilseed Trader

• Rapeseed prices in Europe continue to be supported by the firm soya complex as global soybean production is forecast to decline to a three-year low of 243mln t. According to Hamburg-based analysts Oilworld, global oilseeds production is also expected to fall to a three-year low, resulting in a further tightening of stocks despite some demand rationing.

• Global rapeseed production is predicted to recover to approximately 67mln t from last year’s 66mln t, but there is a long way to go and a lot of weather to get through before our crops are realised

• Rapeseed crush margins are now well below cost and processors in both the UK and on the continent have cut production substantially to the point that they have been selling their rapeseed purchases back to the market.

Summary

With rapeseed processors suffering with the worst crush margins for a decade, the medium term outlook would suggest that falling demand should result in a setback in rape values but, for the time being, the tight soy S&D and the firm soybean market continues to underpin the whole oilseeds complex.