Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets

Wheat

• USDA reports US wheat harvest 59% complete, 48% last week and 27% average – key state of Kansas reported 96% harvested.  
• USDA reports spring wheat crop in good/excellent condition at 89%, up 2% on the week.   
• Trade sees USDA raising US soy, corn and wheat acres in Friday’s report.  
• Western Europe crops are mostly in reasonable shape as harvest starts – improving outlook for French and German crops.   
• Argentine government plans to allow 6mln t of wheat exports from the current crop being planted.
• Egypt has purchased an increased volume of domestic wheat this season – and won’t be looking to issue new international wheat tender until August. 
• The USDA report corn crop in good/excellent condition at 56%, down 7% on the week – weather is seen stressing the crop at key pollination stage.  
• Russia’s AgMin cuts outlook for Russian 2012/13 wheat harvest – projecting crop at 46-49mln t with exports at 16-16mln t.
• Ukrainian 2012 grain harvest under way, early harvested yields seen lower than last year.  
• Canadian all-wheat plantings projected at 23.8mln acres, compared with previous figure of 24.3mln acres – still above last year’s area.

 
Summary

Markets remain driven by global weather concerns, with extreme heat in the Mid-west seen stressing US corn at a key development stage.  The wheat harvest is well under way in the US, with the biggest winter wheat producing state all but finished, limiting further potential losses.  Russian and Ukrainian grain harvests have just commenced with early reports indicating yields down on last year, confirming lower crop projections.
In Western Europe, crop prospects have improved with recent upgrades seen in estimates for the French and German wheat crops. In the UK, wheat prospects remain favourable, although heavy rainfall and high humidity conditions during flowering continue to promote fusarium development and increase associated mycotoxin risk.


 
Oilseed markets - Willie Wright, Oilseed Trader

Weather has become the focus of attention in recent weeks with Corn and Soybean production being the biggest threat. Soybean prices have rallied 150 cents on weather issues with continued hot and dry weather in the US Midwest forecast into next week. We have the USDA quarterly acreage and stocks report out this week with traders looking for an increase in planted area although yield will be key in a weather market and this won’t be reported until the July 12th report.

Rapeseed prices continue to follow Soybeans, although physical activity in rapeseed has been light with farmers content with their pre-harvest commitments. Prices have rallied back to around £365 ex farm for harvest depending on location, if you add in quality bonuses these are still exceptional prices. UK rapeseed exports are expected to be a record this harvest with continued strong demand from the German biodiesel sector and production deficits in Europe.

Wider economic factors continue to undermine the commodity markets with crude oil demand slipping and the Global economy slows down. The Eurozone crisis continues to rumble on with no sign of light at the end of the tunnel, if fact, the market feels worse now than 3 years ago with Spain starting to acknowledge their banking problems and Spain & Italy’s borrowing cost’s rising to unsustainable levels.

Fertiliser markets

Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on fertiliser markets

Nitrogen

At the beginning of the week the global urea market was still looking for a floor. Pakistan tendered on Monday, buying only 100,000mt and the market continued to move downwards until it found some support yesterday. There are no indications that there is still room for further declines, but the demand outlook does remains weak for the time being.  India are yet to announce a fresh tender and Latin American buyers are on the side-line which could see a possible rebound in the market if tonnages of 1-1.5 million tonnes are exceeded.  The current market situation certainly provides growers with a buying opportunity and Gleadell would recommend that some cover is taken for a September/December delivery.
 
Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate demand is slow for UK product and imported material with prices remaining stable.  The global situation is weak for ammonium nitrate and we could see producers cutting back on shipments to increase demand and push levels higher.
 
Phosphates

The phosphates market has slowed down its momentum and currently seems subdued compared with the last few weeks.  There has been little new global business concluded this week on quiet demand, however, there is still DAP demand in India, but buyers are unwilling to pay the high prices being asked by producers.  Chinese sellers are firm on their price ideas of at least $560 per mt but Pakistan and Bangladesh are quiet at present, while Latin American buyers have also stepped out of the market.