Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Granular urea prices have been pushed higher by traders buying to cover earlier sales and manufacturers unwilling to reduce prices or compete with Chinese urea.

August values have moved upwards and the Egyptian FOB market has firmed a further $20/t this week, reflecting the continuing gas supply problems and the demand from the US and South America.

Manufacturers are now in a position to push for higher prices in September, which buyers will ultimately have to pay if they need the product, though the question of where the market goes in Q4 remains.

Ammonium nitrate

The market remains flat with few trades haven taken place in recent weeks as buyers sit back and await new direction.

In the UK, domestic and imported demand is non-existent as farmers concentrate on harvest. In Europe it’s a similar picture, with sales to date well behind previous years. Trade shows no sign of waking up until late September or early October after harvest is complete and some progress has been made on autumn plantings.

The UK could face some logistical problems with over 75% of the UK ammonium nitrate market still to be covered. But given current grain prices buyers are unlikely to be convinced.

Phosphates

The outlook for phosphates remains firm due to a shortage of product from manufacturers just as Europe enters a busy buying period.

UK demand is picking up and TSP & DAP prices have moved upwards closer to replacement levels.