The GB milking herd totalled 1.67 million head as of 1 October 2021, with the youngstock herd (<2yrs) at 932k head, according to the BCMS.

For the milking herd, this represents a 1.7% (29k head) decline in numbers compared to October 2020. This continued the long term decline seen in the national herd, albeit with a small uptick between July and October which is seen annually. In contrast to the main herd, youngstock numbers have been climbing since January 2020 and jumped again in the latest quarter. October youngstock numbers were 5.3% (47k head) above those a year ago. 

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Overall, the lift in youngstock numbers outweighed the decline in the milking herd, making the total GB dairy female population rise 0.7% (17k head).

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There is the potential for increases in the dairy herd over the next 2+ years as the youngstock start to enter the milking herd. However, there are many other factors that could maintain the status quo of long-term decline. Margins are particularly important at the moment – with higher prices having to compete with increasing costs. If the economics don’t favour expanding individual herds, farmers are likely to cull older animals to make space for the new ones instead.