Looking ahead: A farmer’s vision for the future of carbon markets

Thomas Gent, Regenerative Farming Lead, Agreena

The agricultural sector sits at the heart of global sustainability ambitions. As governments, corporations, and investors accelerate their focus on carbon reduction, farms have become central to delivering measurable environmental outcomes. Yet despite this critical role, many farmers remain at the periphery of carbon markets — facing complexity, confusion, and limited control.

This market is still young. And while it’s messy and sometimes frustrating, the future can look very different.Carbon markets can be a crucial support to sustainable agriculture. A system that rewards environmental stewardship fairly and transparently is both possible and necessary.

As a UK farmer, here’s what I hope the next few years will bring.

Free and clear carbon baselines

Farmers need an accessible, unbiased understanding of their current carbon position. This is the foundation for participating in environmental markets and for making informed decisions about the future.

Today, too many baseline assessments are locked behind paywalls, tied to commercial interests, or buried in technical jargon. A better approach would provide every farmer with a free and trustworthy carbon baseline tool – one that delivers real insight.

The goal is simple: empower decision-making. With clarity on where they stand today, farmers can more confidently explore the value of carbon credits, emissions reductions, or biodiversity improvements.

A transparent, farmer-led marketplace

A truly farmer-led marketplace would give producers a platform to showcase their sustainability work on their own terms. Imagine an “environmental storefront” where farmers can signal the carbon, biodiversity, or nature-based value they’ve created — and where buyers can engage directly, with full visibility into the source and impact of their investments.

More control for farmers

Participation in carbon and sustainability markets must be built around farmer choice. That means farmers should have clear control over who they partner with, under what conditions, and for how long.

Crucially, this extends beyond commercial flexibility. It also includes confidence that the data, environmental assets, and outcomes associated with a farm are used in line with that farm’s values –  whether that means staying local or choice over supply chain deals.

Open market signals and communication

Farmers should be able to see the market at a glance: what buyers are looking for, what premiums exist for different practices, and how their credits are performing. If credits aren’t selling, that information should be readily available — creating opportunities to improve offerings or pivot strategies.

Market intelligence shouldn’t be a luxury; it should be a basic feature. Open, timely communication can unlock more efficient, farmer-friendly trading ecosystems.

AI tools are coming – and some will be game-changers

Emerging technology – particularly artificial intelligence – is already beginning to reshape how agricultural sustainability is measured, verified, and rewarded. This wave of digital tools offers both promise and risk.

Done right, AI can simplify the burdens of reporting and verification. It can help farmers analyse emissions, plan low-carbon strategies, and access credit markets more easily. Tools that can automate audits or validate outcomes remotely could reduce costs and increase trust.

However, the key is alignment: these technologies must support (not replace) farmer expertise. Any system that sidelines local knowledge or pushes farmers further down the chain repeats the mistakes of past agri-tech models.

Why it matters

There is no sustainability market without farmers. No carbon credits. No ESG credentials. No net zero roadmaps. It all starts with what happens in the soil, on the land, and across the farm.

Despite this, many schemes are still designed without the farmer in the room. That imbalance needs to change. Farmers are not just service providers in the climate economy. They are essential partners. Recognising their value – and rewarding it fairly – is critical to the future of both agriculture and the planet.

My hope for the years ahead

I’ve seen what’s possible. I’ve earned around £50,000 from these markets on my own farm — not through shortcuts, just by doing the right things and telling that story clearly.

It’s not always easy. But it is possible.  Ultimately, I want to see a future where:

• Farmers feel confident entering sustainability markets.
• Data and tools are working for farmers – not against us.
• Value stays closer to the field, and doesn’t get lost in the chain.

Farmers deserve a system that recognises sustainability as an opportunity, not a bureaucratic burden. By working together – across policy, technology, and farming communities – we can build a market that reflects the true value of land-based climate action.