Ideal conditions across much of mainland Europe have led some crop agencies to increase their estimates, including France’s national stats office France AgriMer, which is predicting a record wheat crop in the EU’s biggest producer.

On Friday, national stats agency France AgriMer announced that France, where the wheat harvest is all but complete, is expected to achieve a recored crop in excess of 40 million tonnes. The French wheat area is up on last year’s large area, and yields are said to be high; crop quality is expected to be good to excellent, unlike last year’s large harvest, where quality proved to be an issue.

Durum wheat production is expected to be below the five-year average in France.

High temperatures in early summer appear to have had only limited impacts on wheat crops, though the French rapeseed harvest is expected to be smaller than last year’s, with yields down.

Private analysts Strategie Grains is predicting a slightly lower total of 38.7 million tonnes for France’s wheat crop.

If the state office is correct, and the French wheat harvest is indeed 8 percent higher than last year’s, this will add to ample global supplies. Worldwide, stockpiles of grains are expected to reach record levels on bumper harvests last year and with more in store for 2015.

Wheat prices continue to decline in light of the abundant supplies and large harvests from other European states and the Black Sea region. Futures fell further in Paris after the french agriculture office increased its estimates.  

Though France’s harvest is set to outstrip 1998’s national record, total EU production is expected to fall this year on smaller harvests in Germany and the UK (respectively the EU’s second and third largest wheat producers). The latest updates suggest that harvest is progressing well in Germany, aided by warm weather and dry conditions.

AHDB estimated that the UK harvest was around 25 percent complete by the end of last week. Although analysts said it remains too early to make concrete assumptions on performance, early indications from Recommended List trials suggest that average yields are down on the five year average in the UK. However, AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds spokesperson Dr Simon Oxeley said this figure is expected to change “markedly” as more data become available.