Although food prices did not rise during August, slightly allaying fears of a developing food crisis, prices of many staple foods have remained at near record levels following grain rallies in July. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has been at pains to point out that market rallies, sparked by fears of reduced yields from major crop producing regions, are masking the reality of increased production and a stable supply of essential foodstuffs.

The EU wheat harvest is down this year on wet weather in the UK and Ireland and drought in the bloc’s Southern and Eastern states. In the Black Sea region, another major wheat producer, yields have been severely hit by persistent drought and in the United States drought has hit maize and soy production. Panic over the US drought was largely responsible for the rallies in July, which began speculation over the possibility of the type of food crisis last seen in 2008.  

The drought taking place in the Midwest and Great Plains of the United States is considered the country's worst in 50 years, coming close to matching the late-1930s Dust Bowl. The drought is expected to cost many billions of dollars and could top the list as one of the most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history.

Worldwatch report warns of unsustainable practices

Nevertheless, echoing assurances offered by the FAO, the Worldwatch Institute released a report into the global situation on Tuesday (25th September). In its report, the Institute reveals global grain production is expected to reach a record high of 2.4 billion tons in 2012, an increase of 1 percent from 2011 levels, but warns that fundamental aspects of the world food system are unsustainable.

image expired

The Institute’s Vital Signs Online service shows that other uses for grains may gradually impinge on the availability of grain for human consumption. For example, the use of grain for animal feed is growing faster than ever, having increased 2.1 percent since 2011. This is compared to a 1.1 percent increase in direct human consumption over the same period.

Grain used for human consumption totalled 571 million tonnes in 2011, according to the International Grains Council. Danielle Nierenberg and Katie Spoden, authors of the Worldwatch report pointed out that, of the of the 50,000 edible plants in the world, three grains (wheat, maize, rice) account for two-thirds of global food energy intake.

Although maize production in the US is expected to suffer as a result of the drought, dropping 13 per cent from a predicted 345 million tons to 274 million tons, Worldwatch and the FAO have both stressed that enough food is still being produced to feed the world adequately; in spite of the drought, global maize production is expected to increase by 4 percent. They have, however, suggested that this year’s events have exposed the unsustainable nature of current food production and consumption.

In contrast to maize, World wheat production is projected to drop 3.6 percent in 2012. However, although wheat production is expected to fall, the worst effects will be absorbed by declines in feed and biofuel production, which compete with grains for human consumption. Earlier this month the EU announced a CAP on its biofuel programme, which would limit the amount of edible materials used for biofuel production.

Over-reliance on a small number of crops

In addition to pointing out that food prices were artificially inflated by panic in the markets, the Worldwatch authors point out that, more fundamentally, “The reliance on grain crops for food security is threatened by more-extreme climatic events, especially droughts and floods.” These events are likely to increase in frequency as climate changes takes hold.

According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, the World Food Programme, and Oxfam International, some 375 million people will be affected by climate change-related disasters by 2015. By 2050, the FAO notes, 10-20 percent more people will be subject to hunger based on the changing climate's effects on agriculture, and 24 million more children are expected to be malnourished----21 percent more than if there were no climate change.

"The relationship between food security, grain production, and climate change is especially important in 2012," said Nierenberg, a Worldwatch senior researcher. "The recent drought affecting the United States and the rest of the world show the need to reduce price volatility, move away from fossil fuel-based agriculture, and recognize the importance of women farmers to increase resilience to climate change."

Tweet