Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

The global market does seem to have found a floor and values are starting to move slowly higher. But long holders in the UK do still have stock to sell and this may provide an opportunity for growers looking to buy before the domestic market follows the global price trend.

Last week’s Indian tender was expected to support prices but disappointed the bulls. Despite only being able to secure 300k of their 1.4mln t requirement, prices only rallied $4-$5/t.

Ammonium nitrate

Ammonium nitrate is still under pressure in the UK with on-farm prices remaining below replacement values. We are seeing signs that this market may start to firm, especially once current stocks are exhausted; these levels are not sustainable for importers. Prices for the new year are up £4/t as sellers strive to increase levels, based on price indications for Dec/Jan cargoes from producers.

The only UK manufacturer, GrowHow, is also trying to realise higher prices. October terms are closed and the expectation is that new levels will be higher for November and December delivery.

Potash

Russian producers have been pushing to increase their global market share and recent trade data highlighted an export tonnage exceeding trade estimates by about 200k. It is important to note that UK potash is competing with Russia in this global market, which was highlighted by a large shipment from Teesport to Brazil last week.

Phosphate

The international market is soft for DAP, MAP and TSP as stocks appear to be ample and buyers seem relaxed. Demand for spot application in the UK market has slowed, although some growers are taking advantage of this dip in prices, placing orders for November and December delivery for spring application.