Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

The full impact of the North African supply squeeze has been evident in the urea market over the past week. In the absence of granular urea from that region buyers have rushed to book product from the Middle East, sending urea prices significantly higher.

In Egypt, no granular urea sale tenders have been held this week as producers are still uncertain how much product will be available due to domestic commitments. Meanwhile, a possible restart of Algerian exports is in the offing, although there is now a large backlog of orders that needs to be filled and numerous short sales in Europe that need to be covered.

The market is likely to keep firming further – UK replacement values are now over £315/t on farm.

AN and CAN

We have seen further price gains for ammonium nitrate and calcium ammonium nitrate in Europe as Yara raised its list prices in Germany/Benelux this week. The outlook for AN for Q1 appears robust, thanks to a relatively favourable wheat/AN price ratio. The new January terms posted by GrowHow UK are already under review and these are likely to move up again from next Monday (16 December).

After a period of weakness buyers in Europe have returned, pushing replacement values higher. January allocation is now almost full, but there is still a huge tonnage nationally to be covered and with farmers still drilling winter wheat the demand for nitrogen is only going to increase. As application time approaches, immediate or quick delivery may not be an option on offer.

P and K

Potash world markets are still suffering, awaiting the news of whether Uralkali and Belaruskali will reunite, and if so, whether a reconciliation means a change in the “price over volume” strategy which the Russian group abandoned in the summer to recover market share.

In the UK and Europe, due to the breakdown in the market, many large buyers held off taking positions causing a short in the market. This has pushed prices higher over the last few weeks as demand increases and positions diminish. 

The global phosphate market is still relatively flat, with only a slight increase in demand from the west but static in the east. DAP markets are still quiet in Asia and India is in no rush to replenish tonnes. In the US, DAP has seen its first uplift in eight months, with buyers still unsure on market direction for the New Year. UK demand for phosphates has increased and prices have moved higher.

Sulphur

The demand for sulphur in all applications continues to increase so the likelihood is that GrowHow Sulphur Gold will be sold out for the season by this weekend. DoubleTop could well be next and SingleTop could finish over the next few weeks. SKW Piesteritz 33N + 30SO₃ granular compound is available for Jan/Feb delivery.