Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Short covering has supported the market briefly with global trades this week concluding at $397/t FOB Egypt. These are high levels for this time of year and although the market remains supported in the short term, there is a negative trend with May tonnes now being offered at lower levels.

As we enter a period of low demand, the whole trade will watch to see if, when and by how much the market will correct in the coming months as tonnages sold short for September – January delivery all need covering in at some stage.

In the UK, cold wet mornings have seen on-farm spot purchases continue at levels that equate to approximately £220/t for ammonium nitrate on a unit by unit basis. The weather forecast suggests there is still some time for safe urea application.

Ammonium nitrate

Late arable buyers and grassland users continue to purchase top-up tonnes. In Europe both AN and CAN supplies are tight but the global AN market is negative into Q3. While a correction will occur at some stage, this is unlikely before late May/early June.  Importers of AN into the UK are now selling spot loads at discounted levels to clear stocks ahead of the next campaign.

Phosphate and potash

UK grassland buyers have an opportunity to buy their remaining phosphate tonnage at a competitive price as blenders compete for market share. As demand subsides, global phosphate producers remain supportive of the market although values are edging lower on a weekly basis.

Potash still remains tight in the UK for spot positions, but with May/June shipments planned from Canada, we see no problems for autumn.