Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

The outlook remains positive for manufacturers with the latest Egyptian tender trading a further $15/t higher. All origins are firmly priced due to a sudden tightness in supply for Jan/Feb and the realisation that the spring shipping window is closing.

The US market is very active mopping up tonnes and, with India, Bangladesh and Europe still to buy, the market will definitely move upwards. Manufacturers are now in a position of strength as the usage period nears so are in no hurry to discount values, waiting for the market to come to them.  

Ammonium nitrate

Buyers who delayed purchasing product in the autumn face a busy and tightening market. Manufacturers in Europe and the UK are relaxed – product is sold out for Jan/Feb deliveries, March prices are already being accepted and, with the urea market also firming, values are likely to move up before the end of January.

There is a large winter crop in the ground across the whole of Europe and this will all require fertiliser at some stage. Here in the UK, analysis suggests only 70% of the market requirement is covered which points to logistical problems given that 700,000t still has to find its way onto farm. All N and N + S values on offer today should be considered in advance of higher prices being announced.

Phosphate

For the first time in 10 months, global phosphate stocks of DAP/MAP have stopped building. Phosphates have now registered six straight weeks of price rises just as we enter the spring use period. The most dramatic hikes have been in Europe and North America and further increases are expected in the coming weeks.

Potash

The market this week has suddenly turned as buyers have returned. Values have risen sharply and as other major fertiliser commodities keep firming, potash will follow.