Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Granular urea prices have continued to slide, although the rate of correction has slowed. Egyptian producers are now back on line or in the process of restarting production, raising the outlook of increased supply for export.

Bids on Egyptian product are $20-25/t below where previous business ended. Weak demand globally, due to low grain prices and the impending river closures in the US, is limiting demand to northern regions. However, Europe will be entering the market soon.

The overall feeling is that the market is correcting ahead of more buying later this month for Nov-Jan shipment periods, but that a floor is not too far away.

Prilled prices have remained firmer, with production problems in the Black Sea, high domestic demand in China and restrictions at the main ports limiting export. Strong demand for prilled urea is likely to uphold the market with a current Indian tender underway and another tender expected in November.

Ammonium nitrate

In the UK, GrowHow prices are to rise by £6/t increase for November delivery periods and a further £3/t for December. In Europe, Yara announced an €8/t increase on its 33.5% product following a €10/t increase in mid-September.

Imported product follows the trend, with sharp price rises in Polish and Lithuanian AN for November shipment periods. Price rises are supported by firmer ammonia costs due to increased demand from the industrial sector.

Phosphate and potash

Many growers are now approaching the end of drilling and are beginning to turn their attention to spring fertiliser requirements. Gleadell can offer spring NPK grades for a range of delivery periods with finance, and advises growers to lock in some cover at these levels.