Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Demand may be slow but urea prices are showing signs of firming further as the first Indian urea tender of the year is announced. The country remains short of product and requires deliveries through February and March, which will keep the market stable to firm through this period.

The strong US dollar continues to be a challenge for the European market, having already increased urea values by over £15/t since before Christmas. Egyptian FOB prices are also firming as gas problems persist, putting UK on-farm replacement values at over £310/t. Stocks are low and it remains debatable whether anyone will bring more product to the UK at these higher numbers. Urea buyers ought to buy any balances sooner rather than later.

Ammonium nitrate

There has been false expectation amongst end users in Western Europe that steep falls in oil prices would be reflected immediately in global fertiliser prices. Many have held off purchasing as a result. In the long run the market may come down, but, with strong seasonal demand expected, we are likely to see the opposite during the spring. GrowHow has held prices at January levels and with imported product firming to reflect replacement values, the two are trading at roughly a £10/t difference.

Phosphate and potash

The market in the UK has been slow for both PK and NPKs. Prices remain firm and as blenders look to replenish stocks we will see further price increases to reflect replacement phosphate and potash prices.