Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

A more subdued week after last week’s Indian tender saw signs of cracks starting to develop as lower offers were submitted. This could mean we have seen the ceiling – the market has reacted and traded down by over $10/t.

Low grain prices continue to be an issue in most major markets including Brazil, Europe and the US, and Chinese producers have lowered their urea prices to encourage buyers back to the market. A correction in the market is now a possibility as talk of gas supply problems in Egypt start to ease and producers, at last, might see an opportunity to step up production.

Ammonium nitrate

UK producers moved to October terms this week, up a further £5/t from September. Imported AN prices have also firmed. Globally the AN market continues to firm after a $30/t increase was seen in the ammonia market this week.

There are still significant AN tonnages to be sold in the UK with the market potentially 20% back on deliveries compared with last year. There is an ever-increasing likelihood that a huge bottleneck will develop. Taking product now and financing it will be a cheaper option in the longer term than waiting to purchase at a later date.

Phosphate and potash

Blenders have again released new price lists this week for NPK and PK blends.  Nitrogen prices are up and phosphate stocks, which were previously sold at below replacement, have now disappeared. This has forced blenders to re-evaluate their prices.