Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Global markets continue to lack direction, mainly due to a lack of tonnage being traded. Spot US Gulf barge prices for granular urea continue to trade around $300/ short tonne FOB, however Egyptian levels for Q1 2015 look set to reach $360/t FOB.

In the UK, granular urea is almost at parity to ammonium nitrate and many buyers are stepping back into the market for their remaining tonnages. Plenty of merchants are also in the market, attempting to cover shorts with more urea tonnage being booked than expected.

Ammonium nitrate

Imported ammonium nitrate remains at about a £20/t discount on farm to UK product despite the latter’s monthly price increases. Importers are struggling to increase levels due to minimal demand and must keep moving tonnages to empty stores as per storage agreements.

However, imported AN replacement levels for January shipments are up about £10/t, so the market will eventually move higher in line with UK pricing.

There is still a significant tonnage to be placed on farm before the spring. Gleadell recommends farmers continue to buy some product to average the price and secure tonnage on farm before the spring squeeze.

NPK

With nitrogen firming and phosphate and potash stable we would expect to see NPK prices rising. However, due to the lack of buying activity blenders continue to release new price lists at lower levels for pre-Christmas delivery. Jan/Feb levels are significantly higher to provide an incentive for farmers to take product to allow the fertiliser market to catch up.