Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s Fertiliser Manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

Granular urea is still trading at $415-425/t globally, representing a UK delivered replacement farm level of £310–320/t, which could firm further depending the outcome of political world events that we have seen take place this week.

In the UK, granular urea is still trading at a £10/t discount to replacement but recent stock levels have been recorded as being much lower than first reported. This may also add some upside to the UK urea market as demand picks up. Currently urea represents an extremely good buy on a cost per unit basis that even the largest cynics of urea cannot ignore.

Ammoniun nitrate

It is unknown whether the problems in the Ukraine will affect ammonium nitrate prices in Europe but obviously any threat to gas supply could potentially firm values. CAN prices have traded higher this week and imported tonnes are not available until April at the earliest. This means on any imported material we are entering a period of instability.

In the UK, GrowHow remains active trying to catch up on deliveries and execute its outstanding order book. Pricing has traded sideways, which may suggest that we are seeing domestic AN pricing at the peak. In April / May we expect GrowHow product to be competitively priced compared with imported nitrogen.

Phosphate and potash

The potash market in the UK looks firm as demand outstrips supply. Stock levels with all blenders are low and, after plentiful rainfall, potash requirements across the UK are very high. We expect potash prices to remain firm in the short term until stocks are replenished in April/May.

Phosphates have stabilised and continue to trade at the same level in the UK over the past week. After nearly 12 weeks of global increases, demand has slowed for replacement product.  In the UK, NPK grades are still in demand as the weather warms up and land dries out enough to start applications.