Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

This week has seen India enter the market, requiring what is thought to be around 1mln tonnes of urea. Demand will predominantly be for Chinese prills, but due to limited supply and uncertainty around China’s 2015 export tax it is unlikely suppliers will offer aggressively.

Granular prices remained under pressure this week with Egyptian product around $348/t FOB. However Europe still requires urea for spring application and, whilst demand isn’t exceptional, small pockets of trade are been talked about. Q1 traditionally is a period of high demand in many northern hemisphere markets and usually does not reflect weakening prices.

Ammonium nitrate

While pockets of imported ammonium nitrate continue to trade at a discount to UK product, replacement values have firmed due to continued nitrate production problems across Europe. UK product is trading sideways, so the gap between the two is set to reduce. Given the logistical issues likely in the new year, GrowHow is well positioned to meet demand, with product ready for delivery. In Germany, Yara announced yesterday a further €5/t increase for CAN from 5 December.

NPK

Phosphate prices have firmed in eastern markets and could lead to an increase in replacement values come the new year. In the UK, the NPK market continues to be squeezed due to sales running behind previous years. A huge UK spring market will need servicing, so Gleadell advises taking product sooner rather than later.